Issued: 8am on Thursday, April 10th 2025
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short-term Forecast (Thursday 04/10/2025 through Saturday 04/12/2025):
During this period, a mid-level trough is expected to progress eastward across the Ohio Valley, influencing the weather in Athens, Ohio. On Thursday, the approach of this trough will lead to the development of a surface low-pressure system over the region, resulting in widespread precipitation. As the system advances, rain is anticipated to taper off by the evening hours. By Friday, the mid-level trough will move eastward, and a cooler air mass will settle over the area, leading to increased cloud cover and the possibility of residual morning showers due to lingering moisture and cyclonic flow aloft. On Saturday, weak high-pressure ridging is forecasted to build in from the west, promoting a gradual clearing of skies and a reduction in precipitation chances, although some low-level moisture may result in persistent cloudiness.
Long-term Forecast (Sunday 04/13/2025 through Wednesday 04/16/2025):
In the extended period, model guidance indicates the development of a more zonal mid-level flow pattern across the central and eastern United States. On Sunday, this pattern will facilitate the advection of a milder air mass into the Ohio Valley, resulting in increased temperatures and partly cloudy skies. By Monday, a shortwave trough embedded in the zonal flow is projected to approach the region, leading to increased cloudiness and a chance of afternoon showers as ascent increases ahead of the feature. Following the passage of this shortwave, a cooler and drier air mass is expected to filter into the area on Tuesday, bringing partly cloudy skies and a decrease in temperatures. On Wednesday, another weak shortwave trough may affect the region, bringing increased cloud cover and a slight chance of precipitation, although confidence in this scenario remains low due to model discrepancies.
