Issued: 6am on Tuesday, January 4th 2022
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short Term (Tuesday 1-4-2022 through Thursday 1-6-2022)
Short term period is starting out with a trough departing into Northeast while another developing ridge aloft looks to move into our area on Tuesday. This trough was certainly a shock to our areas as we have been enjoying 50’s and 60’s better part of past 2 weeks and now it suddenly got cold. Good news for those who prefer things bit warmer is we have to look for weather conditions to be much warmer compared to Monday as northerly flow shuts off. Looking at the surface level, high pressure will settle over central Appalachians region which would mean we are on the back side where southerly flow which explains why we will see moderation in temperatures. Keep in mind that this ridge is not particularly strong and doesn’t extend down into Gulf of Mexico so our temperatures will not warm up to the levels it is now and remain only few degrees above normal. By late Tuesday night, the ridge shifts eastward over Northeastern states while a trough, originating from Pacific Northwest, moves into our area. This trough does not appear to move in until afternoon hours so Wednesday should be yet another milder day initially before temperatures drops sometime late Wednesday afternoon or evening. The way this trough comes suggest that a surface low may form on its left exit region and track through Michigan area with cold front extending down into our area and clearing by Wednesday evening. This system would likely have some snow showers further up in Michigan under cold air, but some precipitation maybe generated down along our area as well. We could see rain showers is possible which may end us flurries with falling temperatures later. Given the strength of this potential trough, some of the season’s coldest temperatures will arrive on Wednesday night into Thursday. Cold air is not the only thing to deal with this system for our area, we may have yet another winter storm to monitor in our area by this time once again, but this time luck may favor our area for the first time this year. Looking at 500H vorticity charts, we can see that models hint at piece of energy which rounds the base of the trough from late Wednesday and Wednesday night and get out ahead of our northern piece once again. Models from this far out have been all over the place and exact placement and amounts is uncertain. Any snow threat for us will be on Thursday into Thursday night and couple of inches is not out of the question. Given that we are 3 days out, lot can change between now and then so we will keep an eye on this. Early indication at least suggest that we have good chance of picking bare minimum of 1″ which we haven’t done so far this winter season. More cold air will follow as we move into long term range. Looking at expected temperatures, highs will be in low-mid 40’s Tuesday and Wednesday before they fall down into upper 20’s. Low temperatures will be warmer Tuesday night with values in low 30’s before the drop into lower 20’s Wednesday night and eventually bottom out in low to mid 10’s for Thursday night. These temperatures can certainly be even colder if snow does indeed get laid. Our overall temperature anomalies will finally be on the colder side after long time with values ranging from 1°F-3°F below normal for this time of the year.
Long Term (Friday 1-7-2022 through Monday 1-10-2022)
After this system moves out, any snow remaining on ground may lead to even colder air by Friday as high pressure moves over our region once again. Temperatures will likely drop into single digits, if there is decent snow coverage on ground, and any winds can knock the wind chills down near or below 0°F range by Friday morning. High pressure will be in place at surface level along with presence of deep trough will likely keep temperatures on cold side of things and any winds will continue to lead to very chilly conditions during daytime hours of Friday as well. Temperatures would look to cool back down quickly Friday evening into Saturday morning once again, it appears that Saturday morning will be even colder by few degrees. One thing to note is the trough would departing our region as we head into Saturday morning toward northeastern states. Looking at upper level pattern, models indicate there will be quick development of upper level riding over central Plains Friday night which then will quickly move into Ohio Valley region on Saturday. This would also bring general southerly flow into our area and we will see warm up in our temperatures fairly quickly as a result of this. By Saturday evening, models depict that there will gulf moisture which would be able to stream northward as flow is directly from gulf waters itself so there is good chances that we will see some rain in our region as temperatures will be too warm. Another thing which makes me thing there is a good chance for this because models also depict another strong artic front which will be advancing into Northcentral Plains region by Saturday evening so this will help to create focus region for rain to develop out ahead of this and move into our region. One more thing which could be concern for our area could be onset of freezing drizzle, this would be the case because ground would be really cold from Wednesday night into Saturday morning period so even when temperatures warm up above freezing, things could still freeze on contact. Do note that I haven’t seen models show this so far yet, but I have seen this happen few times in past so something of a concern. It does appear rain goes on through Sunday morning and comes to end with cold air settling in by late Sunday afternoon. If there are any wet roads still in place, there is a potential it can freeze up and create opportunities for more slick spots. In upper level forecasts, I can see models hint at deep trough coming in by Monday which would enable cold temperatures in place once again by Monday under sunshine as surface high pressure would settle in by this time frame. High temperatures for Friday will likely remain in lower 20’s which warms up into upper 30’s by Saturday and lower 40’s by Sunday before an early highs of lower 30’s on Monday. Low temperatures will be in upper single digits Friday night which warms up to middle 30’s Saturday night before we drop down to lower 20’s Sunday night and eventually down to lower 10’s by Monday night. Our temperature anomalies will be about 4°F-6°F below normal for this time of the year.
