Issued: 8pm on Sunday, November 17th 2024
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short-term Forecast (Sunday 11/17/2024 through Tuesday 11/19/2024):
High pressure currently positioned over the southeastern U.S. will dominate the region tonight through Monday, ensuring dry and stable conditions with mostly clear skies. Radiational cooling overnight will result in cooler temperatures, with frost possible in sheltered areas. By Monday afternoon, light northerly winds will transition to a more southeasterly flow as the high shifts eastward. This change will allow for slightly warmer temperatures and increasing cloud cover by Monday night. On Tuesday, a developing low-pressure system over the Midwest will begin to impact the area. Warm air advection ahead of the system’s warm front will result in increasing moisture and cloudiness throughout the day. Although the daytime hours will likely remain dry, isentropic lift and the approaching front will bring a chance for light rain showers by late evening into the overnight period.
Long-term Forecast (Wednesday 11/20/2024 through Saturday 11/23/2024):
The primary low-pressure system will track northeastward through the Great Lakes on Wednesday, dragging a strong cold front across the region. Widespread rain is likely, particularly during the morning and early afternoon, as strong frontal forcing and sufficient moisture convergence combine. Gusty winds may accompany the frontal passage, with precipitation tapering off by evening. Behind the front, cooler and drier air will briefly settle in under a high-pressure ridge late Wednesday into Thursday morning. However, a secondary reinforcing cold front is expected to move through on Thursday, bringing a renewed chance of showers. This boundary will usher in a colder air mass, leading to below-average temperatures through the end of the week. Lingering troughing in the upper levels will keep conditions unsettled into Friday, with scattered showers persisting. By Saturday, high pressure building in from the west should finally bring drier weather, though temperatures will remain on the cooler side. Overall, the long-term period is characterized by significant frontal activity, with shifts from warmer and wetter conditions midweek to cooler and drier weather by the weekend.
