Issued: 8am on Thursday, February 19th 2026
Technical Forecast Discussion
Key Messages:
- Showers and thunderstorms may be possible Thursday evening into Friday morning, but the severe threat will stay southwest of the state.
- Temperatures will steadily cool back down to seasonal temperatures Saturday and especially on Sunday before steadily climbing back up during the work week.
- Snow flurries may return Sunday morning before calmer conditions return.
Short-Term Forecast (Thursday 02/18/2026 through Saturday 02/20/2026):
Generally zonal conditions will persist through Saturday; however, a potent Colorado low will deepen and push northeastward through Friday as a jet streak follows alongside it. A stationary front will remain over top of us up until the cold front associated with this low replaces it; this stationary front has been the main driver for the warm weather we’ve been experiencing the past few days. This low may bring the chance for spotty showers and maybe some thunderstorms Thursday evening into early Friday morning. However, higher chances will be seen in southwestern Ohio We will continue to see temperatures soar into the 60s today and the upper-50s tomorrow before dropping back down to more-normal temperatures on Saturday as strong cold air advection Friday evening into Saturday. Higher pressure will overtake the state on Saturday following this low, keeping conditions relatively clear and dry.
Long-Term Forecast (Sunday 02/21/2026 through Wednesday 02/25/2026):
Temperatures will continue cooling into Sunday as even colder air advection pushes in behind this exiting low. We may see some light snow flurries Sunday morning as some amount of moisture moves in from the north. A dying cut-off low will push through late Sunday into early Monday morning before merging into a general troughing pattern by Monday morning. A ridge will then follow behind this trough through Tuesday before flattening out into a more zonal pattern. High-pressure will define much of the early week next week before an Alberta clipper travels eastward toward the state by Wednesday. This could bring more chances for precipitation, but chances are still fairly unconfident as of now. By Wednesday, warm air advection will more in as we sit in the warm sector of this low, though temperatures will only likely climb into the mid-40s on Wednesday.
