Issued: 8pm on Sunday, February 15th 2026
Technical Forecast Discussion
Key Messages:
- High-pressure will dominate through Tuesday after Sunday’s rain, keeping conditions stable.
- A deepening low will move through Wednesday, bringing back the chance for rain and the possibility of thunder. Another low will follow Thursday into Saturday with the chance for more rain as well.
Short-Term Forecast (Sunday 02/15/2026 through Tuesday 02/17/2026):
High-pressure will dominate over the region as the current low exits our area. Stable conditions will follow, especially as a ridge develops over the state. Thankfully, this will allow warmer temperatures to yet again move into the area, bringing daytime highs into the 50s Monday and Tuesday. The chance for fog tonight will increase as the temperatures cool overnight with very saturated soil and small dewpoint depression, likely remaining through the morning. Clouds will remain mostly cloudy into Monday morning before decreasing slightly into the evening and Tuesday. We will see heights to steadily rise through Tuesday, keeping conditions stable and dry. While the remaining snow on the ground is slow to melt, we can still expect this snow to continuously melt into the coming days, thankfully.
Long-Term Forecast (Wednesday 02/18/2026 through Saturday 02/21/2026):
The next chance for rain could return come Wednesday as a low from the Pacific Northwest continues to deepen moving eastward. Because this low will push much of Ohio into the warm sector, temperatures will soar into the upper-50s and possibly even into the lower-60s both Wednesday and Thursday, possibly even into Friday. This tightening pressure gradient will be accompanied by a strong jet streak over the Ohio Valley and surrounding states, briefly placing southeast Ohio in the left front quadrant Wednesday afternoon. The chances for rain and storms will depend on how much the environment will utilize the moisture provided to it, with a precipitable water content just over 1″. A chance for a rumble of thunder could be possible during this time as well. As we move into Thursday and Friday, this jet streak will weaken as another, stronger jet streak moves through alongside a small ridge, though a trough with a cutoff low aloft will follow close behind. The next chance for rain could return Thursday into Friday and Saturday as more moisture pushes into the region and yet another low moves through. A rumble of thunder may be possible with Thursday evening’s rain but likely nothing more. More stable conditions will be likely moving into Sunday.
