Issued: 5:00pm on Wednesday, January 16th
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short term (Wednesday 1/16 through Saturday 1/19)
Upper level troughing looks to deepen as the cold front moves through the region. Models show that moisture won’t be available until around the first half of Thursday. The system itself is likely to pass through the region late Wednesday/early Thursday, so it’s not clear how much precipitation could be possible for Wednesday, but it will likely be snow. Another system approaches Thursday as low pressure moves down from central Canada. This system will bring moisture with it as well absorb some from the previous system making for a likely chance of rain showers Thursday. Precipitation will continue through Friday and a low pressure system from Colorado will move in Saturday. models are now saying precipitation will be a wintry mix for the duration of the system. As Saturday comes closer, vertical temperature profiles should be able to tell the possibility for freezing rain/drizzle as as sleet.
Long term (Sunday 1/20 through Tuesday 1/22)
The upper level trough that carries the system through the region on Saturday looks to become increasingly more negatively tilted as it moves to the east. Temperatures at this time will allow for persisting precipitation to fall as snow. Moisture will completely empty from the region Sunday night, but precipitation should stop before that around early afternoon as there will be a lack of forcing to pair with the moisture available. On Tuesday, Upper level ridging moves in and as it strengthens will produce high pressure that rests over Indiana and parts of Western Ohio. Ridging will also bring in warmer air as temperatures will rise to the upper 30s. Another negatively tilted trough approaches Tuesday. Looking at vorticity and velocity values, proper forcing won’t be available until the latter half of Tuesday and from there, rain is likely.
