Issued: 8am on Thursday, October 16th 2025
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short-Term Forecast (Thursday 10/16/2025 through Saturday 10/18/2025):
A classic omega-blocking pattern remains over much of the CONUS with the state sitting under the large ridge of this block. High-pressure will remain over the region Thursday and Friday with stable conditions to follow. However, as we transition over to Saturday, a trough will begin to dig into the central US and move eastward this weekend. Thankfully, any unsettled weather that may come of this trough, and associated surface mid-latitude cyclone, is likely to hold off until Sunday, but we may see some breezy winds and warmer temperatures on homecoming. Relatively dry and fairly dry near the surface and aloft respectfully will pass through the region primarily on Thursday and most of Friday, however, overnight into Saturday could see a large mass of moisture fill into the region and could lead to some clouds to develop by then. Rain is not expected during the morning hours of Saturday at this time. Other than some wind Thursday and Saturday with some cloud cover overnight Friday, stable and fair conditions are expected during this time.
Long-Term Forecast (Sunday 10/19/2025 through Wednesday 10/22/2025):
By Sunday, the surface mid-latitude cyclone is expected to push further east and bring rain ahead of the cold front. By then, a possible jet streak behind the trough will help amplify and deepen it early Sunday morning. This jet streak then may jut out slightly over much of the state by Sunday afternoon, placing southeastern Ohio in the right exit region of this trough. With the combination of prominent cloud cover and the general sinking motion of this jet streak quadrant, thunderstorm activity is not confidently expected. Much of the moisture that may be utilized on Sunday throughout the atmosphere will likely move out of the region just as quickly as it arrived thanks to the arrival of that cold front associated with the passing mid-latitude cyclone. Because of this deep trough and arriving cold front, we may see some breezy conditions of up to 15 mph with some possible 30 mph wind gusts. By Monday, temperatures are likely to cool down with the arrival of the surface cold front bringing in more stable conditions by then. We may see another omega block developing by this time as well, but it may quickly be pushed out because of a low possibly cutting off Wednesday morning but soon dissipating later in the day. While rain chances may return on Tuesday, it is too early to confidently tell at the moment whether or not we’ll see more rain by then.
