Issued: 8pm on Sunday, August 17th 2025
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short-Term Forecast (Sunday 08/17/2025 through Tuesday 08/19/2025)
Overall stable conditions will continue once again moving into the short-term. A surface cold front will make its way over Ohio in the early hours of Monday with higher pressure following behind it. A large and prominent ridge will overtake much of the continental United States, allowing temperatures to remain hot and relatively humid at the surface. While not considerably dry at this level, most of the moisture will be transported from the northeast primarily this evening and Monday. However, as surface winds primarily from the southeast on Tuesday, some of this moisture will be blocked by the Appalachian Mountains, although it won’t be by a significant amount. While some clouds may form behind this cold front Monday and Tuesday, they are likely to be low-level clouds and minimal during the daytime hours as temperatures rise. Throughout these couple of days, warm air will likely permeate over much of Ohio between 925 and 500 mb, further enhancing a stable atmosphere during this time.
Long-Term Forecast (Wednesday 08/20/2025 through Saturday 08/23/2025)
Over the long-term, a shortwave in the jet stream will situate itself over the central United States, and alongside a low-pressure system at the surface, it could bring some showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon. At this moment, these chances are quite low with minimal accumulated precipitation totals. Some instability could be present throughout Tuesday as cooler and drier air moves in generally from the north and northwest with warmer, moist air below it. Somewhat strong vertical velocities could aid in some lift to develop showers and storms alongside a warm front passing through the region earlier in the day. Although, the strength of these values is likely to decrease at 700 and 500 mb, possibly inhibiting extensive growth of any convective systems. Relative vorticity values are quite weak, and any cells to form likely will not have an abundance of energy to survive for long-periods of time Wednesday. Moving into Thursday and Friday, a broad ridge and high-pressure will cover the region once again, however, by Saturday, a deep trough is expected to dig over much of the Midwest with an occluded mid-latitude cyclone alongside it at the surface. Throughout the afternoon and into the overnight, relative vorticity and vertical velocity values are strongest at 850 mb, linearly moving southeast. Any convective systems to form are likely to cluster in a line following the cold front connected to the mid-latitude cyclone in Canada. Overall, cooler air aloft is expected to move through Ohio on Saturday alongside moist air near the surface with drier air at the mid-levels.
