Issued: 8pm on Sunday, May 17th 2026
Technical Forecast Discussion
Key Messages:
- Storms may be likely Tuesday evening, though a significant severe threat is not expected.
- Temperatures will sit around the 90s Monday and Tuesday because of the major warm front over the state. Thankfully, a cold front will move over Ohio by Wednesday, cooling temperatures back into the 70s by mid-week.
Key Message 1…
A low will continue to develop into the coming days as a trough follows close behind it. Skies will remain mostly clear into the start of the week, aided in part to the large ridge situated over the Midwest. As this low continues to approach, we can expect a tightening gradient to develop, bringing in gusty conditions for the start of the work week. Gusts are likely to reach near 20 mph with sustained winds between 10-15 mph. Moving into Tuesday, conditions are expected to destabilize slightly as Gulf moisture advects northward and lapse rates begin to steepen. Most of the instability will remain in the western part of the state, so any severe storms will likely be dampened, but the presence of a low-level jet may still provide energy into the overnight hours to allow rain and storms to persist. While it is still quite far out, we may see some showers and storms by next Saturday as another low moves through.
Key Message 2…
The warm front associated with the aforementioned low will engulf Ohio through Tuesday, and with the ridge situated over the state, we can expect temperatures to soar through this time. Temperatures will likely reach near 90 for the start of the week. By Wednesday, a cold front will sweep over Ohio, cooling temperatures back down into the 70s for the remainder of the week. These temperatures will steadily increase into next weekend, but will stabilize around the upper-70s to lower-80s by this time.
