Issued: 8am on Thursday, June 26th 2025
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short-Term Forecast (Thursday 06/26/2025 through Saturday 06/28/2025):
In the short-term we will finally see the dissipation of the blocking high that allowed this extensive heatwave to develop. This ridge remains strong Thursday as temperatures continue to soar into the mid-90s, although mid-atmospheric heights are expected to fall Thursday and Friday, albeit minimally. Plenty of moisture will remain present throughout the atmosphere alongside the advection of warm air aloft and near the surface. However, some minor cold air advection at the mid-levels will move through as well. A considerable amount of vertical velocity around the region is present Thursday through Saturday, however, Saturday into Saturday evening will have the highest chance for this. With plenty of moisture at all levels of the atmosphere and a slightly tighter gradient aloft, some brief pop-up storms may be possible. Although not severe, they could be a nuisance if unplanned for. The greatest chance for these storms could be Saturday afternoon, although brief cells could emerge any day during the short-term.
Long-Term Forecast (Sunday 06/29/2025 through Wednesday 07/02/2025):
The chance for showers and thunderstorms will continue into the long-term as well. The possible showers and thunderstorms could roll over into early Sunday morning, especially as plenty of moisture remains in the atmosphere. The storm risk will decrease after rapid surface cooling overnight and the lack of a low-level jet to support further convection. While showers still could pop-up Sunday, any form of lift or vertical velocity and a stabilizing could inhibit showers to form. The main threat during this time will be a developing trough Monday into Tuesday. Ohio will be upstream of this minor trough as it develops, increasing the risk for showers and thunderstorms once more. Plenty of vertical velocity will be present Monday into early Tuesday morning alongside positive shear vorticity developing with this trough. Moisture will continue to persist both aloft and near the surface, but Monday into Tuesday will stay incredibly dry and at the mid-levels. Cold air advection will move through the region at 700 mb, with dry air throughout Monday into Monday evening at 500 mb. With divergence aloft during this time, some showers and likely some thunderstorms could roll through. By Wednesday, Ohio will sit comfortably upstream of this trough as conditions stabilize and surface high-pressure returns once more.
