Issued: 8am on Thursday, July 25th 2024
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short-term Forecast (Thursday 7/25/2024 through Saturday 7/27/2024):
With a cold front out to our west and a stationary boundary the the southeast, the chance for showers and a few thunderstorms will remain in the forecast for Thursday. With limited instability, the chance for these thunderstorms to become convective enough to be rather severe is not likely. However, higher values of shear may bring some stronger winds and the stationary boundary will make these systems slower moving providing the chance for some localized flooding risks. As the cold front moves into the area Friday morning, conditions will dry out quickly with dry air moving in due to the southeasterly flow. Cloud cover will stick around preventing daytime heating for convection restricting the formation of thunderstorms. The chance for morning patchy fog cover is anticipated due to the leftover moisture of the previous system that passes through so drive cautiously in your morning commute Thursday morning and once again, on Friday morning. Otherwise, calmer conditions ahead as a ridge continues to build as well as surface high pressure on Saturday.
Long-term Forecast (Sunday 7/28/2024 through Wednesday 7/31/2024):
By Sunday, the ridge appears to decline providing the chance for some showers to pop up due to the increased moisture. Monday and Tuesday could also provide some pop-up showers as potential shortwaves could cause disturbances in the flow. Throughout the start of the week into Wednesday, a trough will begin to dig and develop potentially causing some rainy weather as well as increasing cloud coverage into the later half of the week. Models are still uncertain this far out in time so be sure to check back throughout the week for daily forecasts with updates and Thursday for a secondary technical discussion on any systems that may develop. Overall, temperatures are looking to remain in the mid to upper 80s and the chance for rainfall may return for another rainy week.
