Issued: 11pm on Sunday, October 25th 2020
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short Term (Sunday 10-25-2020 through Tuesday 10-27-2020)
PDVA and WAA aloft will continue to allow negative omega to persist over the forecast area for the next 24-48 hours. This will keep mainly stratus clouds over the region along with stratiform precipitation chances for the majority of the short term. Beginning Tuesday, regions of split flow coming together will create a jet streak over much of the Midwest. At the left entrance of this jet streak, a cold core high will develop, becoming quite strong over Missouri, Illinois, and Iowa. This high will follow its forcing eastward through the day Tuesday and into Wednesday. Highs across the region Monday and Tuesday should only reach the upper 50s, with precipitation possible due to the previously mentioned negative omega.
Long Term (Wednesday 10-28-2020 through Saturday 10-31-2020)
During the short term, off to the west, a deep trough will be forming due to strong PVA and PDTA. This will occur over the four corners states. By Wednesday, the PDTA will eventually close off this trough and cut it off from the remainder of the jet. Eventually, the PVA will propagate this feature eastward into the forecast area by the end of the week. Meanwhile over our region Wednesday, The previously mentioned cold core high will set itself up. PDVA eventually becoming NDVA, along with a nearly equivalent barotropic environment aloft will allow for positive omega, and sinking motion to develop for Wednesday. Because of this, skies should begin to clear for the day Wednesday, with highs rebounding slightly into the mower and middle 60s. However, this pattern will be short-lived as PDVA and aloft WAA will look to move back into the region for Thursday. This will again allow negative omega to develop, and therefore rising motion for cloud and precipitation formation for Thursday. Temperatures on Thursday should remain similar to Wednesday’s, as the forecast area should remain just in the warm sector of the system. Precipitation chances will likely stay alive going into Friday morning, before clearing out occurs by Friday afternoon. After system passage and FROPA early Friday morning, NVA and NDTA will work to build ridging into the area, in the form of mainly clear skies. This pattern will not be amplified enough to bring 70s and 80s back into the region like we saw this past week.