Issued: 3:30pm on Wednesday, November 14th
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short term (Wednesday 11/14 through Saturday 11/17)
Upper level zonal flow weakens for today as a cut off low quickly approaches. Another low pressure system will be off the coast of the Carolinas which will assist in bringing cloud cover and precipitation to the region. The cut-off low will slowly rise and be south of the region for tonight. WAA from the south will continue through tonight that creates a shallow warm layer just above the surface. This creates the possibility for freezing rain tonight and into early Thursday. Models roughly agree that around .10 inches of ice accumulation is likely. Wintry mix and freezing rain is possible through Thursday morning that will turn into rain as precipitation is likely throughout all of Thursday. The mentioned cut-off low will then become part of an longwave trough that will move into the region on early late Thursday. Snow will be more prevalent late Thursday and early Friday as temperatures at the surface and aloft become colder. Snow accumulation will be little to none, but it’s possible snow will stick to the ground as temperatures are near 32 degrees allowing for snow to be wet. Upper level flow becomes zonal mid-Friday as high pressure moves in from the east. The area will likely see a clearing in clouds in the early afternoon. High pressure will be over the area on Saturday as clear conditions continue. Another upper level trough begins to organize on Saturday that brings a cold front late on Saturday.
Long term(Sunday 11/18 through Tuesday 11/20)
Clouds will move in early Sunday as the boundary of a cold front moves through. A stream of moisture is present at 700mb starting on Sunday, but lacks forcing for the first part of Sunday. As a jet streak positions its right entrance over our region, divergence above should be enough to kick start upward motion and bring in precipitation for the late afternoon on Sunday. As Monday approaches, the upper level trough progresses over the region putting Athens upstream of it resulting in sinking motion and generation of high pressure. High pressure will be over the region early Tuesday which will continue clear conditions for the rest of the day.
