Issued: 8pm on Sunday, February 9th 2025
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short-term Forecast (Sunday 02/09/2025 through Tuesday 02/11/2025):
A mid-level trough will gradually approach from the west, bringing increasing cloud cover and a shift from the dry, high-pressure conditions dominating Sunday and Monday. This initial period will feature relatively quiet weather, with only light winds and near-seasonal temperatures, though cloud cover will steadily increase ahead of the system. By Tuesday, the trough will deepen, enhancing lift and moisture transport across the region. Snow is expected to develop early Tuesday morning as cold air remains in place, with accumulations potentially around an inch before transitioning to a wintry mix by the afternoon. This changeover will occur as a warm front lifts northward, ushering in slightly milder temperatures and increasing the likelihood of rain mixing in, especially during the evening hours. Winds will shift from the northeast to the southeast as the system advances, helping to moderate temperatures somewhat before the cold front associated with this system moves through by Tuesday night. As this front passes, colder air will funnel in, leading to falling temperatures and a potential return to snow showers overnight. Road conditions may become hazardous at times, especially during periods of heavier snowfall or transitions between precipitation types.
Long-term Forecast (Wednesday 02/12/2025 through Saturday 02/15/2025):
By Wednesday, the primary trough will still be influencing the region, but precipitation chances will begin to taper off as drier air temporarily filters in. However, lingering upper-level energy could still produce scattered snow showers, particularly in higher elevations, before conditions briefly stabilize. Temperatures will remain on the cooler side following the passage of the cold front, though another shortwave disturbance embedded within the larger trough is expected to move in late Wednesday into Thursday. This system may bring renewed precipitation chances, likely in the form of a wintry mix or light rain, depending on surface temperatures at the time. By Friday, model guidance suggests a more amplified trough moving in from the central U.S., which could bring a more significant round of precipitation heading into the weekend. If cold air remains entrenched, this system could produce notable snowfall amounts, though confidence in exact details remains low at this range. As the week progresses, expect fluctuating temperatures due to the competing influence of transient ridging and successive cold air intrusions. Winds may become more variable with each passing system, occasionally becoming gusty as pressure gradients tighten ahead of frontal passages. Given the active pattern, residents should monitor forecast updates closely, as conditions may change rapidly depending on the track and intensity of each approaching system.