Issued: 3pm on Thursday, January 26th 2023
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short Term (Thursday 1-26-23 through Sunday 1-29-23)
After a low pressure system has exited off to the northeast and is in its final stage of development, cold air advection is now in full swing, along with breezy westerly winds, making conditions feel a lot colder than the high 30s! Snow flurries and showers have been off and on all day and will continue to do so, but temperatures at the surface are still too warm for any accumulations. This does not mean that roads will not be slick, so still be cautious if commuting today and especially into tonight when temperatures will drop below freezing. In place of cold air advection, warm air advection will become dominant Friday with winds shifting to the south/southwest ahead of the next system expected to impact our region. This system will consist of a low pressure at the upper levels, which will slide across the Canada border and lift a warm front at the surface by Friday night. Due to the lack of cool temperatures, little to no snow accumulation is expected, rather light rain showers will be the main chance of precipitation as temperatures will be relatively warm during the overnight hours on Friday in response to warm air advection and southerly flow.
A brief break in the semi-messy weather pattern will occur during the day on Saturday as that aforementioned upper low moves off to the east; however, rain chances will begin Saturday night as southwesterly flow will aid in moisture from the Gulf pumping into our region ahead of a low pressure system approaching from the southwest. Again, main will be the main concern except for possibly some light snow initially onsetting Sunday morning.
Long Term (Monday 1-30-23 through Thursday 2-2-23)
After a mainly rainy Sunday, Monday will be a dry day as surface high pressure briefly builds into the region. Despite model guidance turning not to trusting after Monday, there appears to be a potent system that could impact us late week, bringing additional rain and snow with possible accumulations. Stay tuned for more details on that as model guidance becomes clearer!