Issued: 10pm on Thursday, September 21st 2023
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short-Term (Friday 9/22/2023 through Sunday 9/24/2023):
Friday heading into the weekend will still see some quite nice weather, with this warming trend continuing Friday, thanks to a persistent surface high aided by upper-level ridging and calm upper-level winds. Saturday, we will have some potentially breezy winds from the east to northeast, which will bring in some cooler air as a subtropical low makes its way up the coast. This will bring PVA in the upper levels, paired with a nice cooldown for the rest of the weekend.
Long-Term (Monday 9/25/2023 through Thursday 9/28/2023):
A weak upper-level trough will start to take shape and is expected to eventually become closed off in the upper levels. This positively tilted trough is being aided by a surge of PVA into the region following a vort. max. in the trough to the west. This is expected to form a weak low-pressure system at the surface, likely meaning some cloudy weather with more rising air. This will be nice, as temperatures will stay around the low 70s following the weekend pattern with the help of this cloud cover. The cloud cover and temperatures are expected to remain mostly the same Monday through Wednesday as this low-pressure system kind of stalls out before giving way to some more weak upper-level ridging. As this system draws more moisture up from the Gulf of Mexico, we expect a chance of showers on Wednesday as this trough gains a more neutral tilt and the cold front to the south stalls out. This low is expected to push off to the east by Thursday, and surface high pressure is anticipated to begin to build in, accompanied by a weak upper-level ridge.
Friday-Sunday: Sunny and clear weather, a cooldown expected Saturday.
Monday-Tuesday: Increasing cloud cover Monday PM, clouds and mild temperatures expected.
Wednesday-Thursday: Slight chance of rain showers, clouds decreasing on Thursday.