Issued: 8am on Thursday, December 18th 2025
Technical Forecast Discussion
Key Messages:
- Rain to return Thursday evening as winds gust up to 25-30 mph in some spots Thursday and Friday.
- Temperatures will drop to around 30 on Friday but will return into the mid-30s to mid-40s for the remainder of the weekend and into next week.
- Stable conditions will return by late Friday as high-pressure settles in.
Short-Term Forecast (Thursday 12/18/2025 through Saturday 12/20/2025):
A strong occluded low will continue moving eastward over Ohio into Friday. Warm, southerly air will bring temperatures up into the mid-50s on Thursday, but as the low continues to move closer to Ohio, sustained winds will rapidly pick up to around 15 mph with gusts of up to 30 mph. By the evening and into Friday, two cold fronts will pass over the state, making the temperatures plummet back into the lower-30s. By Thursday evening into Friday, a deep trough will dig through the state alongside this surface low with moisture to follow ahead of this cold front. Rain is expected Thursday evening but will exit the region by 1 am Friday. Winds will stay breezy on Friday much like Thursday as clouds begin to slightly decrease. Temperatures will return into the mid-40s on Saturday as more warm, southerly air enters the region. After Thursday, conditions will remain stable and calm as clouds vary in quantity. Winds will decrease significantly Friday evening into Saturday and will increase slightly on Saturday.
Long-Term Forecast (Sunday 12/21/2025 through Wednesday 12/24/2025):
Zonal conditions transitioning into a ridge aloft will define the long-term. High-pressure will generally overtake the state, keeping conditions stable. Temperatures Sunday and Monday will hover around the mid-30s because of the passage of two cold fronts Sunday, but they are expected to rebound Tuesday and Wednesday. Winds will likely stay relatively breezy during this time with gusts up to 20 mph. Clouds will dissipate dramatically into Monday as high-pressure intensely dominates over Ohio and a dry airmass moves through. By Monday evening and through Wednesday, clouds will build as a weak surface low moves through. The chance for rain could return Tuesday morning, but may not be significant.
