Issued: 8am on Friday, October 9th 2026
Technical Forecast Discussion
Key Messages:
- Hurricane Isaias will make landfall on the Gulf coast tonight.
- Storm tracks have it pushing into the Ohio Valley on Sunday as a post-tropical low pressure system (as of the 5 am Friday NHC forecast update), bringing a chance for flash flooding.
Key Message 1…
Hurricane Isaias is expected to make landfall on the Alabama coast and Florida panhandle tonight, it will then begin to push inland. As of Thursday night, no headlines for flooding are expected, but that may change as the remnants of the cyclone approach. A surge of tropical moisture will move into the area Saturday afternoon and evening bringing an increase in cloud cover. Precipitation wise, parts of SE Ohio and Mountainous locations will likely be seeing precipitation first, locally isolated showers and a potential thunderstorm are possible prior to the main rain bands arrival post sunset. We will also see an increase in wind gusts Saturday night as the southeast flow will strengthen as the remnants approach.
Key Message 2…
The main area of circulation will move into the Ohio Valley region Sunday afternoon. The remnants will also create a strong low-level jet, causing for locally heavy rainfall as PWAT values range between 1.5 and 2 inches for the duration of the event. The NWS will continue to monitor SE Ohio for potential flooding of creaks and streams as the Weather Prediction Center still only has Athens in a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 4) for excessive rainfall. The Storm Prediction Center also does not have Athens outlooked for any severe potential throughout the duration of this event. Precipitation totals now range 1 to 1.5 inches, as always, any flood-prone or other low-lying areas will likely see some ponding of water. Remember if you come across a flooded roadway, turn around don’t drown. Power outages are also possible in higher terrains due to the risk for tree fall from saturated soils.
