Issued: 8am on Thursday, July 16th 2026
Technical Forecast Discussion
Key Messages:
- Haze and smoke from Canadian wildfires will impact our air quality through Friday.
- A cold front will sweep through bringing chances for thunderstorms Friday night into Sunday.
Key Message 1…
A large upper-level ridge will build Thursday and Friday, allowing us to maintain our dry and hot conditions. While typically we would see much hotter weather this time of year with this pattern, wildfire smoke from Canadian wildfires will have a slight cooling effect as it will disrupt incoming solar radiation. During peak heating hours the smoke is expected to temporarily thin out before a larger plume moves southward. Friday winds aloft will shift to north westerly allowing a plume of wildfire smoke to shift southward, bringing near surface smoke concentrations to our area. This will suppress daytime temperatures as well.
Key Message 2…
A relatively dry cold front will push into our area Thursday afternoon, while a pop up shower before sunset is possible, the front remains too weak to disrupt the dominant dry conditions enough to rationalize a chance for rain in the overall forecast. Chances for rain will remain isolated Friday night and becoming more widespread on Saturday as a shortwave trough will dig across the Great Lakes. Ahead of this deep moisture will move into the area, prompting heavier rainfall. This will create a concern for flash flooding as well as chances for higher winds in strong thunderstorms, however, confidence in timing and magnitude of these threats is low at this time.
