Issued: 8am on Thursday, July 3rd 2025
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short-Term Forecast (Thursday 07/03/2025 through Saturday 07/05/2025):
We begin the short-term with a departing trough for a massive upper-level ridge to slowly consume much of the Midwest region. With this comes rising heights at 500 mb and the continuation of high-pressure at the surface. Warm air advection will dominate throughout much of the atmosphere, although some weaker warm air will remain at 700 mb with hints of cold air at times. Lack of moisture at the mid-to-upper levels of the atmosphere with sinking air aloft will inhibit vertical cloud development, and any clouds to form are likely to be small, low-level clouds with minimal chances of precipitation. By late Saturday and into Sunday, the ridge aloft will begin to smooth out and provide the region with some calmer zonal flow for the remainder of the short-term and partially into the long term.
Long-Term Forecast (Sunday 07/06/2025 through Wednesday 07/09/2025):
Zonal flow will bleed into the long-term into Sunday as surface high-pressure still remains, however, a developing surface low-pressure system will slowly make its way towards the Ohio Valley come Monday. Some shortwaves are expected to travel across the region throughout most of the long-term, especially as mid-level heights are expected to volley between falling and remaining relatively at equilibrium. Warm air advection will continue to move into the region, albeit slightly cooler temperatures will advect by Tuesday into Wednesday as a smaller, secondary trough deepens at the Great Lakes Wednesday. With relatively strong vorticity at 500 mb and a fair amount of vertical velocity throughout the atmosphere Wednesday evening, we could see some thunderstorms Wednesday evening into early Thursday, especially with near-surface dew points points having the potential to reach the upper-60s and relative humidity values around 70%, providing a decent amount of moisture to fuel any thunderstorms that may develop that evening.
