Issued: 8am on Thursday, December 25th 2025
Technical Forecast Discussion
Key Messages:
- Generally stable conditions during the short-term with some rain showers on Friday.
- Rain will likely return come Sunday as a stronger low pushes eastward. Winds will pick up significantly Sunday through Tuesday as this low continues to move towards the East Coast.
Short-Term Forecast (Thursday 12/25/2025 through Saturday 12/27/2025):
A ridge will remain over the region through Saturday after a surface low slowly makes its way out of the state. While high-pressure will fill in behind this low, some rain could linger behind the cold front associated with this low. However, much of this rain would have occurred earlier Thursday morning as drier air trails behind it. As a result, clouds will slowly begin to dissipate and stable conditions will follow briefly on Christmas Day. However, another low will push eastward over Ohio throughout the day Friday, bringing more moisture into the area. We may see some rain showers on Friday as winds pick up slightly throughout the day, but nothing too significant is expected to come out of this system. A few warm fronts will briefly pass over southern Ohio, allowing temperatures to soar into the upper-50s through Saturday. Clouds will also briefly dissipate once again come Saturday as dry air overtakes the state. Overall, pleasant conditions save for some brief moments of rain throughout Friday.
Long-Term Forecast (Sunday 12/28/2025 through Wednesday 12/31/2025):
Yet another surface low will push through Ohio on Sunday, bringing even more rain into the region. Slightly heavier rain could be expected with higher precipitable water in comparison to Friday. As this low strengthens Sunday into Monday, winds are expected to pick up dramatically Sunday through Tuesday with peak intensity on Monday. Sustained winds may be around 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph in some spots. A trough is expected to develop Sunday which is expected to bring us back down into more seasonable temperatures. These temperatures will remain consistently around the 30s during the day and the 20s during the overnight. Higher pressure will allow for more stable conditions as the trough aloft begins to shift slightly eastward, setting us upstream of this trough.
