Issued: 8am on Thursday, September 17th 2026
Technical Forecast Discussion
Key Message:
- Chances for showers with a possible thunderstorm Thursday due to a frontal boundary passing through.
- A warm front will lift into the area Saturday into Sunday bringing more chances for rain.
Key Message 1…
A cold front will pass through the area Thursday morning bringing showers and thunderstorms as the leading shortwave perturbation moves into the region. There is no severe risk nor apparent widespread flood risk, however, we are in the Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 4) for excessive rainfall as a weak low level jet will allow for ample moisture content for heavier showers. A shortwave upper-level trough will dig in behind the cold front allowing a weak area of high pressure to build on Friday, briefly bringing cooler temperatures and some sun back into the area.
Key Message 2…
A second mid-latitude cyclone will move through this weekend lifting a warm front into the region on Saturday and pushing a cold front through Sunday/Sunday night. Chances for rain look to be mostly Saturday evening/night (as of Wednesday at 9 pm). It is too early to determine a severe risk, though it is not too early to determine a possible risk for excessive rainfall where the area is once again in the Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 4). Due to the time between now and this event, stay up to date with our daily forecasts here at Scalia Lab!
