Issued: 7pm on Wednesday, November 13th 2019
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short Term (Wednesday 11/13 through Saturday 11/16)
Relatively calm and consistent weather looks to dominate through the short /long term as weak flow aloft and high pressure continue to set presence over the region. Temperatures will primarily be the main topic of this discussion as the highs will continue to remain below average for this time… As of 00z Thursday, a SW’ly jet streak is positioned throughout the Ohio valley as a mid-level shortwave trough continues to advance east of the region overnight and into Thursday. This will push the once seen (1033mb) high pressure just SE of the region as a dry cold front propagates further east onto SE Ohio by later Thursday evening. This less impactful boundary and increased flow aloft will help maintain an increase in upper level cloud cover (400mb-250mb) overnight and into Thursday morning. Temperatures will not drop as far as they did for daybreak on Wednesday, but with weak winds near the surface and very low moisture content, the low may drop below 20 and into the upper teens. Winds near the surface will become SW’ly positioned by Thursday afternoon out ahead of the approaching surface boundary as the high temp struggles to hit above the mid-40s. Dewpoints will remain very low (mid-upper 20s) with its projected FROPA by 00z-06z Friday with an increase in lower-level cloud cover the likely outcome. In addition to the weak and zonal flow aloft, higher pressure will once again fill in to our north and southwest as it maintains control across the central Plains all the way through the Great Lakes by the early weekend… Depending on the track of the projected Gulf low swinging through the SE by late week, an slight increase in cloud cover at most may be experienced for portions of SE Ohio.
Long Term (Sunday 11/17 through Tuesday 11/19)
Temperatures look to gradually climb out of the mid-40s by early this term and back near seasonable averages by early next week… A weak upper level trough is projected to swing through the upper Midwest by 00z Monday as its axis remains positively tilted and fairly weak. Any inclement weather currently seems unfavorable as minimal 700mb moisture and lower dewpoints within the upper 20s may only spark and increase in cloud cover for Sunday night/Monday morning. Another upper level trough looks to quickly follow and swing through the upper Midwest by 06z Tuesday with possible future progression of an upper level low enclosing over the upper Great Lakes. This is a little further out, but alongside this weak disturbance may bring an increase in cloud cover and even the next best chance of precipitation for Tuesday into Wednesday… Temperatures finally bounce back near average by Tuesday/midweek with highs nearing the lower 50s and lows around the freezing mark.