Issued: 8pm on Sunday, March 22nd 2026
Technical Forecast Discussion
Key Messages:
- Severe thunderstorms are expected to fully move into Athens by 1 AM Monday morning with the primary threats of strong winds and large hail, but a stray tornado cannot be ruled out.
- Temperatures will plummet Monday as strong CAA pushes close behind the cold front that will move over the state Sunday evening into Monday, dropping to the upper-40s.
- Warmer temperatures will follow Monday before dropping once more Friday as another cold front and showers and thunderstorms move through.
Short-Term Forecast (Sunday 03/22/2026 through Tuesday 03/24/2026):
A small trough will push its way eastward tonight as a chain of lows moves through alongside a cold front. Most of the storms will initially fire off just north of Athens behind the stationary front that will develop over southern Ohio; this region in particular has the strongest indications of vertical velocity. These cells will primarily track due east by 8 PM, but the main line of clustered storms that is expected to impact Athens will arrive around 1 AM. The primary threat for the region is expected to be severe winds and large hail (1.5-2.5 in according to the SPC), but an isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out. Storms are expected to exit the state well before daybreak, so there isn’t a concern for any lingering cells to interfere with anyone’s morning commute. By Monday, temperatures will drop by 30+ degrees as we see very strong cold air advection behind the aforementioned cold front from tonight. A ridge will develop quickly behind this trough, so these chilly temperatures won’t last for too long before warmer southwesterly air moves back in by Tuesday. Stable conditions are expected as high-pressure pushes in quickly behind this approaching low, aiding in warming temperatures.
Long-Term Forecast (Wednesday 03/25/2026 through Saturday 03/28/2026):
Stable conditions will continue into Wednesday and early Thursday as high-pressure is pushed out of the state by a broad region of low-pressure. The chance for more showers and thunderstorms could return early Friday morning, but these don’t seem to show the same impacts we could see later Sunday evening. Another trough will likely develop Friday into Saturday as temperatures, once again, drop into the upper-40s as another swath of CAA pushes into the state before trending upwards in the coming days afterward. Overall, stable conditions will follow into the end of the week except for the possibility of thunderstorms Friday morning.
