Issued: 5:00pm on Wednesday, March 20th
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short term (Wednesday 3/20 through Saturday 3/23)
Upper level troughing begins to take through the middle of Wednesday. This generates a band of moisture that looks relatively deep vertically. Pressure surface maps show a weak low pressure system form in response to the trough indicating weak lift and instability on Wednesday. Clouds and scattered rain showers are likely to form within the region due to this. Upper level ridging off to the west continues to amplify as the trough moves out of the region on Thursday. Clouds will clear on Thursday night as high pressure approaches from the Central Plains. Upper level ridging will take over influence in the region on Friday as cloud clearing continues. High pressure looks to to be over Ohio on Saturday to continue this trend.
Long term (Sunday 3/24 through Tuesday 3/26)
A mid level ridge will begin to form into a trough on the beginning of Sunday. This will help transport moisture over into the region later in the day as a cold front from the north propagates south and will act as the lifting mechanism for precipitation and increased cloud cover for that day. The trough begins to gain a stronger upper level component on Monday as shortwave disturbances in the Eastern Plains create a low pressure system that will begin to follow flow of the upper level trough. Rain showers are possible on Monday as a weak cold frontal boundary will be over the area. Late Monday into Tuesday, the center of the low pressure system looks to move just below the region through Tennessee. SE Ohio will sit in the northwest sector of this system under a large area of moderate vorticity. Showers will be widespread until the cold frontal boundary passes allowing for drier air to clear skies and halt precip. With the approach of the cold front, showers are likely to switch to snow showers early Tuesday.
