Issued: 8pm on Sunday, December 28th 2025
Technical Forecast Discussion
Key Messages:
- Temperatures will plummet Monday as a cut-off low moves over the state.
- Snow flurries may be possible Monday and Thursday but aren’t likely to stick if snow does fall.
- Stable conditions will overtake the region throughout the upcoming week and start of the weekend.
Short-Term Forecast (Sunday 12/28/2025 through Tuesday 12/30/2025):
A cut-off low will move over the state through Monday, dropping our temperatures dramatically overnight Sunday. A larger trough will fill into the region, bringing back seasonably cold air by Monday. These temperatures will drop almost 30 degrees on Monday, and we’ll consistently stick around the mid-to-lower-30s to upper-20s for start of the work week and beyond. Moisture near the surface and aloft could allow for some snow flurries on Monday, but a low precipitable water content may keep any flurries at bay. If snow were to fall, it’s unlikely that these flurries will stick to the ground due to the warm ground from the previous unseasonably warm temperatures. Winds will begin to decrease starting Monday as the intense low at the surface begins to push northeastward. Height tendency will begin to rapidly increase Sunday evening, allowing for more stable conditions and higher pressure to fill back into the region.
Long-Term Forecast (Wednesday 12/31/2025 through Saturday 01/03/2026):
Temperatures will remain chilly into the new year. A trough is expected to remain over the state through Saturday which will allow for our temperatures to stay in the lower-30s, though high-pressure will keep us fairly dry during this time. A weak surface low will move past the state with moisture alongside it, bringing the chance for snow flurries Thursday morning. However, the precipitable water, too, will stay fairly low during that time, diminishing the likelihood for any substantial snowfall. A cold front will move over the state as well Thursday, drying out the air and dropping our temperatures into the mid-20s Thursday as well. High-pressure is expected to overtake the region once again, keeping the air stable and calm during the long-term.
