Issued: 5pm on Wednesday, June 3rd 2020
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short Term (Wednesday 6/3 through Saturday 6/6)
As of 21z Wednesday, an east-west oriented cold front extends throughout central Ohio and has shown future regression and will likely become stationary overnight into Thursday… Thunderstorm activity has developed just south of Columbus, Ohio over the remaining afternoon hours as this frontal boundary minimally sags south onto the region. Hot and humid conditions still persist with dew points still lying near 60 as we remain highly unstable. The chance for some severe wind/hail and heavy downpours will continue to be possible over the next few hours, but begin to lessen as sunset ensues later this evening. Showers and a few thunderstorms will be likely overnight into Thursday as this now quasi-stationary front fluctuates south to north over the next 24 hours. Precipitable water values will continue to remain high, especially throughout Thursday with values reading upwards of 1.80″. Potential severity will extend into Thursday while instability, moisture content and lower level forcing remains high, especially after 12-1pm. Shear will be lacking in a sense, which will lessen the possibility of long-lived storms and favorable rotation within the lower-levels. Precipitation chances will last into Thursday evening as this stubborn frontal boundary lifts further north of the region by Friday morning. This weather pattern will extend into late week as an upper-level shortwave trough looks to slide through the Great Lakes Friday night into Saturday morning. This system will introduce another, but more defined cold front onto the region around sunrise Saturday and bring in additional rain showers and even a few thunderstorms. Moderate CAA will filter in following the recent FROPA and effectively reduce Saturday’s high by about 5-10 degrees from the past several days. Upper-level ridging sharply builds across the Great Plains and eventually lower Midwest influencing high pressure and drier weather conditions for the weekend.
Long Term (Sunday 6/7 through Tuesday 6/9)
Temperatures will quickly return to the mid-upper 80s by early next week as this previously mentioned upper ridge becomes situated overhead. Weather conditions will stay mostly dry into Monday and first part of Tuesday, even as this high pressure breaks down and advances east and off the Mid-Atlantic coast. Cloud cover will begin to increase Tuesday night into Wednesday ahead of the next approaching upper-level trough/low pressure system. *A bit of uncertainty on how the remnants of Tropical Storm Cristobal will impact the lower Plains and the timing of it being pulled within the flow pattern for midweek.*
(*Next Technical Discussion will be posted on Sunday 6/7*)