Issued: 11pm on Sunday, May 12th 2019
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short term (Sunday 5/12 through Tuesday 5/14)
Low pressure is generated near the region in response to the negatively tilted trough on Sunday. As the low pressure will barely be an organized system at this time, any convection will be disorganized likely only bringing rain and a few thunderstorms to the area in the afternoon and the evening. Storms are more likely in the evening as a secondary cold front pushes through the region. During this time more instability and lift will be present allowing for more organized updrafts to potentially form. Precipitation continues through Monday as low pressure will still be nearby to the NE, but upper level ridging will move in the bring high pressure and cloud clearing.
Long term (Wednesday 5/15 through Saturday 5/18)
Upper level ridging produces high pressure that moves into the region on Wednesday resulting in minimal amounts of cloud cover and the beginning of WAA and a warming trend. A brief mid level disturbance will create clouds and bring in moisture Wednesday night, but the lack of any forcing mechanisms will only result in a cloudy night. The disturbance moves out by Thursday as over upper level ridging returns continuing to bring in WAA. Ridging grows stronger on Friday resulting in an increase in warm flow being brought in which is shown by temperatures possibly reaching the 80s that day. On Saturday, a stationary front slowly creeps its way from the north into SE Ohio. The boundary appears relatively weak, so chances for rain showers are somewhat low, but clouds will increase on this as result.