Issued: 8am on Thursday, March 5th 2026
Technical Forecast Discussion
Key Messages:
- Temperatures will continue to warm through the weekend and into next week as warm, southerly air flows into the region. Expect temperatures to reach above 70 Friday and Saturday, possibly bleeding into next week as well.
- Continuous rounds of rain will further increase the risk of flooding and landslides in low-lying areas and hilly regions, respectively. Saturated soils could loosen sloped terrain while disallowing water to be absorbed into the ground.
Short-Term Forecast (Thursday 03/05/2026 through Saturday 03/07/2026):
A shortwave trough will move through the region today into tonight as a low follows alongside it. Gulf moisture will travel northwards to continuously supply us with a steady stream of moisture to aid in rain development. Some instability will settle aloft today, providing us the chance for some rumbles of thunder, though nothing severe is expected. While a slight risk for excessive rain has dissipated into today, there remains a chance for Athens County and the surrounding areas to receive around 2 inches of rain into Saturday evening. This will only continue saturating the soil in the area, increasing the risk of flooding, especially with the flood warning seen previously. While we’ll see a break from the rain slightly on Friday as a warm front overtakes the state, shooting our temperatures above 70, we are expected to get slammed with even more rain come Saturday as a strong, isolated low will track across the region.
Long-Term Forecast (Sunday 03/08/2026 through Wednesday 03/11/2026):
The strong ridge aloft that is assisting our temperatures soaring into the 70s will slowly weaken as a deep trough to our west decays and dissipates before merging with the flow aloft. This will allow temperatures to dip back down slightly into the lower-60s on Sunday before picking back up Monday through Wednesday. Zonal conditions will develop Sunday evening and will persist into Monday before a ridge starts to develop Tuesday. Another large, potent Colorado low will sweep eastward by Tuesday, engulfing the state in the warm sector, assisting in the transport of warm, moist air from the Gulf to bring back the possibility for rain Tuesday and Wednesday. With the repeated chance for rain in the coming days, a risk for flooding and landslides will continue to go up as we receive more inches of rain, further saturating the soil in our area. By Wednesday evening, precipitation chances are likely to decrease as a cold front moves over the region, cooling temperatures back down into the 40s once more.
