Issued: 9:00pm on Wednesday, September 19th
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short term (Wednesday 9/19 through Saturday 9/22)
An upper level ridge will begin to build over the eastern Midwest on tonight. A weak stationary front formed from the remains of Florence will be pushed northward as winds look to switch from northerly to a more southerly flow. This will promote warming in the atmosphere as conditions remain clear. The day and evening will be relatively dry as highs reach the low 80s, so the day should be comfortably warm. The ridge will continue to build as it moves over the region on Thursday. This promotes more warm air to move in from the south as highs reach the mid 80s. A low pressure up in the Canadian portion of the Great Lakes will keep most of the moisture north as temperatures continue to rise, so the days should be bearable and nights should be comfortable. A cold front attached to the aforementioned low pressure system will move in on Friday as it leads an upper level low. The only moisture available when the frontal boundary approaches the region will be moisture associated with the front itself. If showers and storms occur, they look to be brief. Dry air follows the cold front as temperatures dip into the mid 70s. A small chance for showers exist on Saturday as moisture moves in the evening that could line up with diurnal heating convection.
Long term (Sunday 9/23 through Tuesday 9/25)
CAA will be present on Sunday as highs only reach the low 70s. Clouds will increase Sunday night due to moisture around a front to the south. This front will stall to the south of the region on Monday. The front looks to remain stalled until Wednesday which means clouds and possible precipitation remain a possibility until the mid-week.Deep layered moisture is present in the stalled front which could mean flooding potential if further model run put the frontal boundary closer to the region. A deepening ridge will be over the plains on Tuesday. This will create another cold front that looks to affect the area over the later part of the week and into the weekend.