Issued: 4pm on Wednesday, March 25th 2020
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short Term (Wednesday 3/25 through Saturday 3/28)
Weak high pressure ~1016mb is in place as the previous upper-level trough progresses further east off the Mid-Atlantic coast. Clear skies will persist into the evening/overnight hours of Wednesday as this weak and brief upper-level ridge begins to quickly exit east of the area by 00z-03z Thursday. Patchy fog development will likely materialize further overnight as calm conditions and decent radiational cooling will establish near the surface. Surface high pressure once situated overhead will sag further southeast with the progression of Thursday, which will promote for surface flow to begin veering SW’ly. WAA within the lower-levels will sharply increase in the afternoon and aid in temperatures exceeding the mid-60s. A surface cold front will slowly encroach onto SE Ohio by 00z-03z Friday and likely become quasi-stationary throughout southern Ohio, introducing precipitation Thursday evening into Friday. Weak CAPE will be present with this frontal boundary, but strong speed shear alongside this warm/moist environment should keep thunderstorm development possible overnight into Friday morning. Current models are depicting the majority of this precipitation the heaviest throughout central Ohio and keeping QPF through Friday morning <0.50″. This previously mentioned stationary boundary will become affixed throughout the Ohio River Valley Friday/Friday night, which will continue to promote for more rain showers to develop. This unsettled weather pattern will persist into the weekend as an upper-level trough digs through portions of the Midwest and associated surface low pressure strengthens into the western Great Lakes. SE Ohio will quickly become within the warm sector of this approaching low by Saturday morning as its warm front lifts well north of southern Ohio. Warm and humid air will be present as temperatures are bound to exceed the lower 70s across the region. This warm and unstable environment may house potential thunderstorm development later in the day Saturday as a cold front eventually makes it FROPA later Saturday night into early Sunday morning. This strengthened low-pressure system over the Great Lakes will generate for some compact isobars and strong pressure gradients for the late weekend.
Long Term (Sunday 3/29 through Tuesday 3/31)
The cold front from short term will make its passage between 09z-12z Sunday as westerly CAA filters in throughout the remainder of the day. Upper-level ridging develops throughout the Midwest and Great Lakes region, which will promote for high pressure and subsidence near the surface to occur. A break to this pattern will last into early next week, in before the next upper-level shortwave trough swings through the central Plains sometime Tuesday/Tuesday night. Temperatures this term will see a major reduction as from Friday and Saturday with highs right around average for this time of year.
(*Next Technical Discussion will be posted on Sunday 3/29*)