Issued: 4pm on Thursday, June 30th 2022
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short Term (Thursday 6-30-22 through Sunday 7-3-22)
A ridge aloft is currently positioned overhead, with surface high pressure still keeping the area dry like it has this past week. This pattern will not last for long, however, as the ridge will begin to flatten and slide east tonight due to the approaching cold front from the northwest and upper level trough pattern positioning overhead. Increasing clouds will be a tell tale sign of this disturbance approaching and high pressure moving out. Showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be present on Friday ahead of the frontal boundary. Localized flooding will be a concern with some slow moving storms that do develop. Guidance is expecting the cold front to stall over the weekend, keeping showers and thunderstorms in the forecast. The best chance for precipitation to develop will be along the stalled frontal boundary when it settles, which looks to be on Saturday. There is still a chance for showers and storms the entire holiday weekend though, with this frontal boundary being nearly stationary. Although there is only a slight chance on the 4th of July, if any precipitation does develop, this may alter outdoor plans.
Long Term (Monday 7-4-22 through Thursday 7-7-22)
A continuing active pattern is in store for next week as an upper level ridge replaces the trough pattern, but this ridge is not relatively strong. Shortwave energy pulsing through the ridge can be seen on model guidance, indicating nearly daily chances for shower and thunderstorm activity across the area. Temperatures should remain right around normal during this time period due to those daily precipitation chances. At this time, any storms developing should remain out of the severe category, but again, localized flooding may be an issue, especially in low lying areas.
