Issued: 4pm on Thursday, November 10th 2022
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short Term (Thursday 11-10-22 through Sunday 11-13-22)
As skies are relatively clear right now, upper level clouds will begin to build into the southeast Ohio region as tropical moisture starts to seep in from hurricane Nicole. We have been under a strong ridging, as well as a broad surface high pressure pattern this past week, but things will soon change, as a pretty fantastic pattern can be seen on current satellite imagery. This includes a strong low pressure system and associated cold front pushing east (low currently centered in eastern Minnesota), and hurricane Nicole making landfall on Florida. These two systems will eventually meet with each other within the next 24-48 hours, creating a deep mean trough. This trough and the aforementioned strong cold front will provide us with significant rainfall, with 2-3 inches expected and possibly locally higher amounts in some spots. Flooding should not be a concern, however, as the ground has been quite dry from the lack of rainfall the past couple weeks. A secondary but much weaker troughing pattern may provide additional rain showers Saturday morning, but the bulk of precipitation will occur tomorrow (Friday).
Long Term (Monday 11-14-22 through Thursday 11-17-22)
As you will probably notice after these two systems move out of the area, cold air advection will be in full force, bringing daytime temperatures from the 70s to the low 40s, so make sure to get those warmer coats back out of the closet! High pressure will then be the main story by Sunday, providing sunny skies once again but much more November-like temperatures. As of now, confidence is low for the next approaching system, but chances for precipitation could soon arise again by mid next week, with a southern upper low pushing moisture into the area.
