Issued: 3pm on Wednesday, December 14th 2022
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short Term (Wednesday 12-14-22 through Saturday 12-17-22)
After we saw a little bit of sunshine yesterday, cloudy skies have unfortunately returned along with a somewhat messy weather pattern. A maturing low pressure system out in the northern plains is lifting a warm frontal boundary north today and into this evening, providing the region with rain showers for much of the day. Some showers may be heavier with this system combined with a low level jet. Rather gusty winds will begin tonight as a pressure gradient tightens, with gusts between 20 to 25 mph possible at times. After this warm front pushes north, an associated cold front will move through on Thursday, bringing even more rain to the area. Much cooler area will additionally be observed after the frontal passage, with lows dipping into the 20s. After this messy disturbance moves out, a few flurries will be possible on Saturday as colder air continues to filter in and an upper level low moves overhead.
Long Term (Sunday 12-18-22 through Wednesday 12-21-22)
High pressure will then build in for the rest of the weekend and continuing into Monday. The rest of next week is still fairly up in the air in regard to the weather pattern, as models are not coming to a general consensus of when the next disturbance will arrive. The GFS has snow arriving on Monday night into Tuesday but only for northeast Ohio and very minimal accumulations, or as the European model has a dynamic low pressure arriving Monday night into Tuesday, bringing a mix of rain and snow. Of course it is still too early to tell with these models being well over 100 hours out, thus making this a very low confidence forecast. However this is still something to watch, especially so close to Christmas!
