Issued: 8pm on Sunday, March 5th 2023
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short Term (Sunday 3/5/2023 through Thursday 3/9/2023)
Dominant high pressure made for clear skies and lots of daytime heating this Sunday, but clear skies overnight into Monday means that longwave radiation from the Earth’s surface will escape, and we will feel chilly tonight with overnight lows in the mid-30s. A low pressure, currently developing to our west, pushes closer to our area on Monday, and we see the effects of its associated warm front through daytime highs reaching upwards of 70 degrees! However, the system’s associated cold front is expected to develop and strike late Monday afternoon, bringing with it a slight chance for precipitation. Precipitation falls as rain with warm temperatures. The presence of a jet streak and strong ridging is the main driving factor of polar air dipping down into the area, bringing strong northerly winds on Tuesday as well as cooling temperatures. This lines up seasonable and chilly temperatures for the greater part of the week, but upper level ridging also means that high pressure settles in! Therefore, sunny skies arrive as soon as clouds dissipate with the rising pressure. This patterns remains for the middle part of the week until active weather arrives later on Friday.
Long Term (Thursday 3/9/2023 through Sunday 3/12/2023)
A strong upper level trough shows the presence of a surface low pressure pushing in the afternoon on Friday. Temperatures around this time look to be seasonable but still above freezing, meaning this system’s precipitation will fall as rain. Strong cyclonic vorticity and a tight pressure gradient with the approaching low center means gusty conditions with winds from the SW. Right now, models are showing the system passing overnight into Saturday, but as always, timing is difficult to pinpoint this much in advance. Sunday looks to be much clearer with a more defined ridging pattern.
