Issued: 11pm on Sunday, December 17th 2023
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short-term Forecast (Sunday 12/17/2023 through Tuesday 12/19/2023):
A negatively tilted upper-level low is anticipated to impact the region Monday morning. Monday morning, a strong cold front will advect a cold polar air mass into the area. Initially, rain will fall as the surface temperatures remain too warm; however, by early afternoon (around 2 pm), the rain will transition to snow as the temperatures drop. Winds will increase significantly during this time between 20-25 mph from the west, with gusts up to 35 mph expected. These winds, in conjunction with falling snow, have the potential to decrease visibility during the afternoon and evening hours, so it is advised to take extra caution when driving on Monday afternoon/evening. Additionally, these strong winds will cause wind chill temperatures 10 degrees below the air temperature Monday through Tuesday night. Models suggest around an inch of snow will fall for Athens County; however, little, if any, snow will accumulate. Snow flurries should subside by Tuesday afternoon as the system exits to the east.
Long-term Forecast (Wednesday 12/20/2023 through Saturday 12/23/2023):
Upper-level ridging and surface high pressure will build in behind the low Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday and continue through Friday afternoon. The resulting subsidence will allow for skies to clear a bit into Wednesday afternoon. Furthermore, dry conditions and much calmer winds are anticipated. Weak WAA is also anticipated Wednesday/Thursday as a result of the southwesterly flow, so afternoon temperatures will warm slightly into the mid-40s during this period. Friday night into Saturday afternoon, an upper-level shortwave looks to bring some light rain showers that will have little accumulation.
Synopsis:
Monday – Tuesday morning: Snow, strong winds, and cold temperatures!
Wednesday – Friday afternoon: Partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies with dry conditions.
Friday evening – Saturday: Light rain showers.
