Issued: 5pm on Sunday, February 18th 2024
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short-term Forecast (Sunday 2/18/2024 through Tuesday 2/20/2024):
An upper-level trough is currently making its way east. SE Ohio is currently located in the right exit of the upper-level jet streak. The resulting subsidence is allowing for sunny skies today. Weak upper-level ridging will take over Monday afternoon, allowing for the sunny skies to continue due to the subsidence and surface high pressure. A small upper-level shortwave will move through Tuesday afternoon, bringing slightly warmer air to the region. Associated PVA will allow for cloud cover to increase Tuesday afternoon into the evening hours.
Long-term Forecast (Wednesday 2/21/2024 through Saturday 2/24/2024):
Zonal flow will take over Wednesday, and skies will remain partly cloudy. Afternoon temperatures will peak in the mid-50s. A small embedded shortwave will enter the region late Wednesday night. Shower chances will begin and increase into Thursday afternoon as the shortwave centers over SE Ohio, and weak PVA enhances upward motion and the formation of storms along the cold front. Around half of an inch of rain is anticipated to fall with this system Thursday.
High pressure will once again dominate Friday as upper-level ridging takes place overhead and strong NVA surges in encouraging strong subsidence. Skies will slowly clear throughout the day, but winds will remain relatively strong between 10-20 mph. Conditions will be similar on Saturday as high pressure continues to fill in.
