Issued: 10am on Thursday, August 29th 2024
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short-term Forecast (Wednesday 08/28/2024 through Friday 08/30/2024):
A stationary front remains stagnant over much of the central Ohio region, trailing from the warm front of a developing low pressure in the Northern Plains. This surface low is being driven by a strong upper level low embedded in a shortwave trough, which, as it progresses further eastward, will push a quiet prominent ridge further east as well. Flow in our area currently remains more zonal, and marked by that stationary front, temperatures on Thursday will still likely reach a daytime high of 96°F, with dewpoints still near 65°F. These conditions will generate strong instability, with CAPE values possibly exceeding 3000 J/kg at peak heating hours, and sufficient lift through the stationary front could return non-severe scattered showers and storms in our area from the afternoon to the evening. As the crest of this ridge passes north of us through by Friday and the stationary front develops into a warm front, conditions in our area will be marked by further advection of a warm and moist airmass, increasing daytime temperatures to possibly around 98 degrees, with similar dewpoints and values of CAPE. Therefore, a few more scattered showers and storms are possible during the later day as well, though once again, a lack of sufficient SFC-3km shear will make these storms relatively non-severe, and lift would need to exceed the shallow surface inversion.
Long-term Forecast (Saturday 8/31/2024 through Tuesday 09/32/2024):
The extent of the fronts from this Midlatitude cyclone will be far-reaching, as the quite prominent surface low will be stationed in central Canada by Saturday, with the fronts stretching as far south as Oklahoma. The weaker cold front on Saturday will be travelling through northwest Ohio by 12Z, reaching our area by 18Z, and returning a marginal risk of severe weather specifically along a more organized line of thunderstorms due to similarly strong levels of CAPE as previous days though weaker shear. These storms will pass through the evening, and will usher in cooler temperatures near 90°F for Sunday, and dewpoints back down to ~55°F. However, a secondary and stronger cold front associated with the larger shortwave trough will pass through the area overnight Sunday, followed by a prominent surface anticyclone embedded in the right exit region of a broader longwave trough stationed much further north. These features will drop temperatures to around 84 degrees by Monday, and introduce prominently dry air back to the area amidst higher pressure around 1024 mb. This high pressure will peak by Tuesday, making for clear and calm conditions to persist from the start of the new week.
