Issued: 12am on Thursday, January 1st 1970
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short Term (Sunday 7/14 through Wednesday 7/17)
Southeast Ohio is squeezed in between and along a stationary front that extends west to east for Sunday evening and into Monday. Rain showers and the risk for a thunderstorm will be isolated transitioning through late evening Sunday and will look to wrap up quickly by sunset. Currently, very subtle ridging aloft and a southeastern high pressure will continue to aid in this unsettled weather pattern. We enter another warm sector out ahead of the post-tropical disturbance (Barry) that is located in the mid-Mississippi river valley. Monday, there is a chance for a rain shower and even an isolated storm to briefly initiate into late afternoon/evening with potential convection near the slow-moving warm frontal boundary. Winds will strongly shift to southerly for Tuesday morning accompanied by, well as you guessed it, an abundance of moisture being advected into the region. Soundings will greatly become saturated for the end of this period as surface dewpoints climb to the low 70s in regard to this tropical influence. The warm core low will be influenced by the mid-level flow and form a shortwave trough by Tuesday. As the system nears, its extending front right quadrant will increase cloud cover and pump the risk for showers and even storms into mid-day Tuesday. Storms that do initiate for Tuesday pose little risk for severity as CAPE and shear values do not look as favorable, leaving heavy downpours likely. This post disturbance will slowly continue its diminishing path northward and eventually get pulled into our jet stream and eventually our region for the end of the period. Surface winds and strong WAA will increase as the central low becomes closer on Wednesday. Flooding threats may be introduced as precipitable water values reach between 2.0”-2.5” as well as projected rain totals near 1.50”-2.00”. Temperatures stay consistent through this period with highs into the mid-upper 80s and could be hindered with afternoon showers/convection that may exist. This interesting shortwave should exist the area by early Thursday and leave the start of the next period much “drier”.
Long Term (Thursday 7/18 through Saturday 7/20)
Drier air will be filtered in for Thursday and into the weekend after the recent passing system and upcoming weather pattern. Some clouds may stick around through Thursday as the low-level moisture is hesitant to leave. Upper level flow and Jet Stream becomes very much zonal and west to east driven across southern Canada. This will offer ridging to much of the east coast as well as our region. This lifted jet and dominate southwesterly flow will incorporate hot and humid days extending for the entire period. This warmup will extend the anticipated high temperatures into the lower 90s and the lows near the mid-lower 70s as the weekend closes. Extending out, the next system looks to dig across the Great Lakes region into Monday bringing the next risk for more showers and thunderstorms.
