Issued: 12am on Thursday, January 1st 1970
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short Term (Sunday 9/1 through Wednesday 9/4)
This evening, an upper-level disturbance has been the influencing factor for Ohio as longwave troughing propagates eastward across the Great Lakes region. Upper divergence had established over central Ohio earlier this evening and will progress further northeast of the region throughout the remainder of Sunday. As this relatively established low continues to lift further northeast of Ohio, it will begin to introduce a cold front from the NW early into Monday. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to fire off throughout the evening hours of Sunday and throughout Monday morning out ahead of this frontal boundary. The previously mentioned cold front will pass southeasterly through the area by 16z-18z Monday. Weak high pressure of about 1019mb will fill in over southern Ohio before shifting southward by Wednesday morning. Simultaneously, another longwave trough is projected to dig southeasterly through the upper Midwest and drag a cold front through Ohio between 15z-18z Wednesday. In conjunction, Hurricane Dorian continues its northerly trek along the Atlantic coast, which may speed up and greatly affect the timing of this incoming upper level disturbance. Moisture profiles within the mid to upper levels remain fairly dry, which will heavily hinder any possible precipitation of forming ahead and along this boundary. The timing of Wednesday’s frontal passage may also occur earlier in the morning, which would affect any initiation ahead and along the front in addition to the projected high temp. Throughout this term, dewpoint values will remain moderately humid (lower to mid-60s) as temperatures will fluctuate within the lower 80s and possibly upper 70s for Wednesday.
Long Term (Thursday 9/5 through Saturday 9/7)
Well prominent CAA and higher pressure (~1023mb) will filter into the region late Wednesday/early Thursday, which will introduce cooler temperatures through late week and into the weekend. Downstream flow will control the region through Thursday and Friday and maintain mostly dry and cooler conditions. In conjunction to this flow pattern, the Current Euro and GFS models are depicting the remnants of Dorian to lift northeast off the coast of North Carolina by late week. Once again, another troughing pattern is projected to dig and position itself over the northern Great Lakes and drag another cold front through the area by Saturday evening. In its wake, higher pressure and an increase in 500mb heights will soon follow for Sunday and early work week.
