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Saturday January 19th, 2019 - 11:32 am

The National Weather Service in Charleston has issued a Flood Watch in effect from January 19, 01:00 PM EST until January 20, 04:00 AM EST.

Athens will continue to receive periods of rainfall throughout the day, with a transition to freezing rain/sleet shortly after midnight. Shortly after 2 AM, snow will finally begin to fall and accumulate as a blast of colder air filters in.

Due to the larger warm wedge associated with this low pressure system, the amount of snowfall in Athens has been reduced to about 1 - 3 inches by the end of Sunday. The heaviest snowfall will end by mid-morning on Sunday, with periods of light snow possible throughout the day as the low pressure system exits the region.

Attached are images from the high-res NAM, indicating the transition period tonight, along with the lower snowfall totals expected for Athens.
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The National Weather Service in Charleston has issued a Flood Watch in effect from January 19, 01:00 PM EST until January 20, 04:00 AM EST.

Athens will continue to receive periods of rainfall throughout the day, with a transition to freezing rain/sleet shortly after midnight. Shortly after 2 AM, snow will finally begin to fall and accumulate as a blast of colder air filters in. 

Due to the larger warm wedge associated with this low pressure system, the amount of snowfall in Athens has been reduced to about 1 - 3 inches by the end of Sunday. The heaviest snowfall will end by mid-morning on Sunday, with periods of light snow possible throughout the day as the low pressure system exits the region. 

Attached are images from the high-res NAM, indicating the transition period tonight, along with the lower snowfall totals expected for Athens.Image attachment

Friday January 18th, 2019 - 3:58 pm

The National Weather Service in Charleston has now downgraded Athens to a Winter Weather Advisory in effect from January 20, 12:00 AM EST until January 20, 09:00 AM EST.

Some of the shorter range models however still keep snowfall totals on the higher side due to some heavy bands of snow that are expected to fall after midnight on Saturday. The variation of the storms track and the rain/snow line in different model runs have made this system very difficult to forecast for. An additional update on this system will be posted tomorrow morning.
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Friday January 18th, 2019 - 1:12 pm

Good afternoon from Scalia lab! As mentioned here is another update on the winter storm system this weekend. The National Weather Service in Charleston, WV has put Athens County in a Winter Storm Watch valid for Saturday morning into Sunday morning.Remember this means that winter weather conditions are possible in the next 48 hours. Predictions right now are for 4-6 inches of snow with ice accumulations. (This could very well change!!!) The models have this system making a shift down to the south, putting Athens County right by the rain/snow line.

Referenced is the RAP model of snow predictions by Sunday morning and a image of what the RAP thinks the radar will look like by Saturday afternoon. This image shows how a shift of the system north or south could make the difference of all rain vs a wintry mix with snow. This storm has been a fit for most meteorologists and predictions can change. Stay tuned to our social media pages and scalialab.com for updates on this winter storm system.
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Good afternoon from Scalia lab! As mentioned here is another update on the winter storm system this weekend. The National Weather Service in Charleston, WV has put Athens County in a Winter Storm Watch valid for Saturday morning into Sunday morning.Remember this means that winter weather conditions are possible in the next 48 hours. Predictions right now are for 4-6 inches of snow with ice accumulations. (This could very well change!!!) The models have this system making a shift down to the south, putting Athens County right by the rain/snow line. 

Referenced is the RAP model of snow predictions by Sunday morning and a image of what the RAP thinks the radar will look like by Saturday afternoon. This image shows how a shift of the system north or south could make the difference of all rain vs a wintry mix with snow. This storm has been a fit for most meteorologists and predictions can change. Stay tuned to our social media pages and scalialab.com for updates on this winter storm system.Image attachmentImage attachment

Thursday January 17th, 2019 - 5:17 pm

Here is another update for the upcoming winter storm that will affect the Ohio Valley region this weekend. First, the National Weather Service in Wilmington, Ohio has issued a Winter Storm Watch for the areas north of Athens, Ohio and the Southeast Ohio region for Friday night until Saturday night. The biggest if about this system is the track the low pressure will make when it approaches the region. A track more to the south could make a more snowier forecast for the region, but right now models want to push the heaviest of the snow to the north. Referenced is the GFS and NAM snow forecasts valid through Sunday evening. Also referenced is the precipitation forecast based off the NAM model (Not the actual forecast just one of the models representation!!)

The models throughout the week have put the Southeast Ohio region in more of the warm sector of this low pressure system and because of this NWS Charleston has lower snowfall forecasts for the region over the weekend. The overall forecast is looking to be a wintry mix late Saturday morning and change to rain for most of the day Saturday. By Saturday night as temperatures fall, precipitation looks to change to snow and that will stay into Sunday morning. Flooding will be a concern as melting snow and rainfall will be around the region. After this system moves out the coldest air of the winter season will move in on Monday. Highs will struggle to get out of the teens with lows in the single digits Monday night.

Another system moves in mid-week and keeps the active weather pattern in store for the Southeast Ohio region. Stay tuned for a update on this storm before it moves through on Saturday! As always tune into scalialab.com and our forecast hotline for daily forecast updates!
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All about models. Curious. Has anyone tried to work out the forecast for fun using old fashioned paper and pencil type charting and observational data? Nan

Tuesday January 15th, 2019 - 5:39 pm

While a separate winter precipitation event will take place tomorrow and Thursday, the system that is expected to move through the area on Saturday has caught everyone’s attention. What makes this system special is the chance for significant precipitation and possible winter storm conditions due to its synoptic setup. The upper level trough is digging far enough south to bring cold Arctic air down to SE Ohio and make frozen precipitation possible. The absence of high near the system is also favorable for storm development.

It is very important to mention that this system still has plenty of time to evolve over the next several days. As of now, the precipitation totals appears to be higher in central-northern Ohio, with Athens potentially seeing more of a wintry-mix. Scalia will make sure to keep updating the status of this system as the weekend approaches.
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While a separate winter precipitation event will take place tomorrow and Thursday, the system that is expected to move through the area on Saturday has caught everyone’s attention. What makes this system special is the chance for significant precipitation and possible winter storm conditions due to its synoptic setup. The upper level trough is digging far enough south to bring cold Arctic air down to SE Ohio and make frozen precipitation possible. The absence of high near the system is also favorable for storm development. 

It is very important to mention that this system still has plenty of time to evolve over the next several days. As of now, the precipitation totals appears to be higher in central-northern Ohio, with Athens potentially seeing more of a wintry-mix. Scalia will make sure to keep updating the status of this system as the weekend approaches.Image attachment

 

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Ryan rain is unacceptable. Make it snow ❄️ 😊

Sunday January 13th, 2019 - 2:28 pm

As some may already know, members of OU Cams and staff of Scalia Lab attended the annual American Meteorological Society conference (AMS) this past week.With some presenting posters on research they have previously done. Every year meteorology students at Ohio University continue to excel and impress! ... See MoreSee Less

As some may already know, members of OU Cams and staff of Scalia Lab attended the annual American Meteorological Society conference (AMS) this past week.With some presenting posters on research they have previously done. Every year meteorology students at Ohio University continue to excel and impress!

Twitter – @ScaliaLab