Issued: 10am on Monday, June 12th 2023
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short Term Forecast (Monday 6/12/2023 through Thursday 6/15/2023)
We had a rainy start to the week with a surface low carrying across the Midwest, having been fed plenty of moisture from the Gulf. We do catch a brief break in the rain on Monday and Tuesday, though we still are seeing plenty of clouds considering the amount of moisture. Temperatures will dip but remain comfortable in the mid-70s, though we are expecting wrap-around rain to impact the area in the early morning hours on Wednesday with significant upper-level divergence. We aren’t seeing an incredible likelihood of thunderstorms, though we can’t rule out some rumbles of thunder entirely considering convection and the strength of this low. A shortwave disturbance creates a small likelihood of active weather on Thursday evening, but by Friday, we are spotting the arrival of dominant upper-level ridging, and temperatures are going to start climbing into the weekend.
Long Term Forecast (Thursday 6/15/2023 through Sunday 6/19/2023)
Consistent low pressure through the weekend keeps suspended clouds, and dependent on moisture, we could see some spotty, localized patches of rain. There will not be anything to be concerned about as they will be very brief, if existent. On Sunday, we are tracking a greater chance of rain and thunderstorms with the development and the advancement of a Colorado low. Timing and overall impact of this system will refine with time and increased confidence, but definitely this is something to keep in mind when planning out your week.