Issued: 10pm on Thursday, October 19th 2023
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short-Term (Thursday PM 10/19/2023 through Sunday 10/22/2023):
A deep trough gaining a negative tilt is moving through the region. The low pressure at the surface is being aided by the strong upper-level jet with a vort. max. at the base of this trough associated with strong divergence at the left exit region of the upstream jet streak. At this stage, the surface low is very mature and occluded, and the low-pressure aloft is going to become a cutoff low. The system is also vertically stacked through 500 mb indicating further that this low-pressure system will weaken soon and fill in. This system will bring a relatively strong cold front at the surface bringing a sharp temperature drop, precipitation, and breezy winds ahead of the cold front. There is also the chance for a rumble of thunder or two tonight.
Heading into the weekend, the low-pressure system will continue to the northeast and continue to weaken. The system will still be causing some disturbance and provide enough wraparound moisture and lift to bring showers through Saturday night into early morning.
Long-Term (Monday 10/23/2023 through Wednesday 10/25/2023):
To start out the week, a strong ridge of high pressure will set up in the upper-levels. The ridge will follow the trough and be brought about by strong NVA from the right exit region of an upper-level jet expected to be position upstream from the ridge. Surface high will linger around for the majority of the week through Wednesday, providing subsidence and keep clouds mostly at bay for the first half of the work week. Precipitation will be a possibility for the later part of the week as another low-pressure system is anticipated to move to our north. Stay tuned for more details in later forecasts.
Thursday PM – Saturday: Rain showers and temperatures dropping sharply.
Sunday – Monday: Clearing skies and high pressure building behind the cold front.
Tuesday – Wednesday: High pressure dominates, mostly sunny/partly cloudy skies with no precipitation!