Issued: 10pm on Sunday, October 8th 2023
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short-term Forecast (Sunday 10/8/2023 through Tuesday 10/10/2023):
A strong, closed upper-level low is expected to stall until Wednesday before being pushed out by the next trough. Rain showers are expected tonight through Monday morning ahead of the weak surface warm front associated with this system. Additional indicators include WAA and marginal PVA values that will be present just to the west of the region. By QG Chi, these indicators further signify decreasing pressure, which may aid in a small shortwave producing these small morning showers. Later into the afternoon, rain chances will diminish and skies will begin to clear. Pressure will increase slightly into the night and into Tuesday as weak upper-level ridging takes place. As a result, Tuesday will be mostly sunny, and temperatures in the mid-60s.
Long-term Forecast (Wednesday 10/11/2023 through Saturday 10/14/2023):
Ridging will continue into Wednesday afternoon allowing fair weather to continue, but by Wednesday night a moderate mid-level jet sparks some light showers. These showers will linger into the early hours of Thursday morning. Thursday and most of Friday should remain dry as minor ridging returns but by Friday night another low-pressure system will move in and the surface cold front will bring widespread showers that will continue throughout the day Saturday.
