Current Forecast: 11am on Monday, August 7th 2023

Forecast Discussion

An upper-level shortwave trough will move through southeast Ohio today. This will allow cold air aloft which provides a lifting mechanism for warm air to rise. There are two rounds of showers and storms today with the first round occurring in the early afternoon and a second wave of showers and storms occurring in the late afternoon and evening hours. This is due to the fact that storms will pop-up ahead of the cold front that will move through this afternoon as well as being located in the left exit region of a jet streak later in the evening. Peak wind shear values are at 35 knots with peak CAPE values just above 2000 J/kg. Another major ingredient for storms is moisture and dewpoint temperatures will reach up to the mid-70s which is plenty of moisture for storms to develop. There is a likelihood for supercells to develop ahead of the trough given the wind shear profiles. The SPC has issued an enhanced risk where large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes are possible. The greatest threats will occur east of the Appalachian Mountains into West Virginia, but southeast Ohio is at a 5% risk for tornadoes.

Once the shortwave trough moves out tonight, high-pressure will begin to settle in Tuesday and Wednesday bringing more pleasant conditions and slightly cooler temperatures in the low-80s. However, another shortwave trough will move through Wednesday night into Thursday bringing another chance for showers and thunderstorms as southeast Ohio will be located in the left exit region of a jet streak. This will provide upper-level divergence and a lifting mechanism favorable for storms. The severity will be monitored as Thursday gets closer. Another shortwave trough will move through the area on Friday bringing more chances for rain.

Detailed Forecast

Today it will be mostly cloudy with a 70% chance of severe showers and thunderstorms. Winds from the SW at 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. High 78°F

Tonight it will be mostly cloudy with a 30% chance of severe showers and thunderstorms. Winds from the W at 5 to 10 mph with gusts up to 20 mph. Low 62°F

Tuesday it will be mostly sunny with no precipitation. Winds from the W at 5 to 10 mph. High 82°F

Tuesday Night it will be mostly clear with no precipitation. Winds from the SW at 0 to 5 mph. Low 63°F

Extended Forecast

Wednesday it will be partly cloudy with no precipitation. High near 84°F with a low near 63°F

Thursday it will be mostly cloudy with a 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms. High near 80°F with a low near 67°F

Friday it will be mostly cloudy with a 30% chance of rain showers. High near 86°F with a low near 65°F