Issued: 11am on Thursday, July 6th 2023
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short Term (Thursday 7-6-2023 through Sunday 7-9-2023)
Today we are expecting thunderstorms throughout the region until at least Friday through the evening. This is due to an upper-level disturbance that is tracking eastward into our region. Surface low pressure with this trough to our north is going to bring a cold front into the region sometime tonight into the early morning hours on Friday. This system is associated with a broad plume of upper-level moisture as well as lots of instability associated with daytime heating. Model soundings show CAPE in excess of 2,000 J/kg, which will be plenty for even some potentially stronger thunderstorms tonight with this cold front. Model guidance also shows high theta-e values, further indicating a quite unstable atmosphere conducive to thunderstorm development. After this frontal passage, we can expect a short period of dry weather, but this is not expected to last long. At this time, we are not under a risk of severe weather as outlined by the Storm Prediction Center. As this trough continues to move farther east, we will see a quick break in the rain, so expect dry weather for a short period of time Friday night into Saturday before our next system. Sunday, we can expect more rain from the incoming system to the north.
Long Term (Monday 7-10-2023 through Thursday 7-13-2023)
Further, into next week, another longwave trough with some embedded shortwaves is expected to push into our area. This next upper-level disturbance is expected to bring a stationary front that will linger over the forecast area for a day or so, bringing enough convergence and lift to fire off some scattered showers and thunderstorms. Upper-level maps also show PVA in this region, indicating a low pressure system at the surface, that will start to move the front out of the area. High pressure will also move in, further helping this system on its way. Shortwave upper-level ridging from this high pressure will continue to stick around through the day Wednesday, leading to dry conditions for a short amount of time. Although this front will be pushed to our south due to the high pressure, it looks like another frontal passage is expected sometime Wednesday, meaning more rain for Athens due. A stationary front associated with a surface low pressure will set up and eventually move this stationary system out of the Ohio Valley.