Issued: 12am on Thursday, January 1st 1970
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short Term (Wednesday 7/3 through Saturday 7/6)
Upper level ridging will continue to form on Wednesday as an influx of more moisture and heat will be sticking around the region. This subtle pattern will promote more of this warmer and moist air to be advected into the area creating a very unstable environment in promoting additional WAA. Low-level troughing will slide across the lower Great Lakes on Wednesday with associated surface low pushing further off to the northeast late afternoon. Cape will be moderate-high on Wednesday as values may reach over 3000J/kg, but limiting efforts in the shear department will hinder severity. Afternoon thunderstorms may still be strong on Wednesday, and severity cannot be totally ruled out as SPC still keeps us in the Marginal category. Once again, dewpoints will be relatively high as values will reach into the upper 60s and lower 70s, keeping it very humid. Precipitable water values will be near the 2.00-inch mark which can promote heavy downpours and quick precipitation accumulation within some of the storms that initiate. Additionally, the national weather service issued a flash flood watch in effect until July 4th 10pm. Combined with this advected moisture from the southwest, temperature values will also maintain in the mid-upper 80s with heat indices into the 90s for this period. More spotty storms will again occur for Thursday and Friday with the help of a mid-level ripple and diurnal heating/convection. Saturday will hold for more cloudy skies and storms as a more organized upper-level disturbance and associated weak cold front rolls through. Brief CAA settles in shortly after to try and “dry” the region out for the early start of the work week.
Long Term (Sunday 7/7 through Tuesday 7/9)
Finishing up this unsettled pattern will be the cold front on Saturday and a return to zonal westerly flow for the latter half of Sunday and early next week. Some rain showers and clouds will linger heading into Sunday with still present low-level moisture and the previous system propagating further east. This return in flow and very subtle upper-level ridging will bring in drier conditions and sunnier skies for the very end of the weekend and start of the work week. Temperatures will still hold into the upper to mid-80s as we return into another warm sector into Tuesday/Wednesday. Far out in the models’ timeline, a more organized system looks to take shape to our north in the Great Lakes region. The upper-level trough digs in the Great Lakes region by late Wednesday into Thursday as shown from GFS, but will be subject to change as the forecast period closes in.This means for more rain and thunderstorm chances to increase mid-week. Potential severe weather will be in question as upper-level parameters currently seem favorable.
