Issued: 11pm on Monday, January 15th 2024
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short-term (Monday 1/15/2024 through Wednesday 1/17/2024):
Snowflakes are anticipated to fall Monday night through Tuesday morning as the lower-level disturbance and PVA ahead of the strong upper-level vort. max moves off to the NE. Around half an inch of snow is expected to fall in this timeframe. Nighttime lows are expected to be in the single digits. The northwesterly surface flow will continue to advect colder air into the region through Tuesday morning. High pressure will begin to build in behind the vort. max Tuesday afternoon, the resulting subsidence will allow for the skies to become clear in the evening Tuesday. Due to the clearing overnight, radiative cooling will take place and temperatures will drop into the low single digits Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning. However, the wind chill is anticipated to be in the negatives during this time. High pressure will continue into Wednesday, and so will the mostly sunny skies. Minor WAA is also anticipated to take place during this time to begin a slow warming trend.
Long-term (Thursday 1/18/2024 through Saturday 1/19/2024):
Thursday evening, snow showers will return with the entrance of a strong, negatively tilted longwave trough and significant surface and mid-level moisture. Current model runs suggest that these snow showers will continue throughout the day Friday, tampering off Friday night into Saturday morning. Models suggest that around two inches may fall for SE Ohio from these showers. Winds will also pick up during this time as a result of the strong pressure gradient from the system. High pressure will once again build in Saturday as strong upper-level ridging takes place. Skies will clear during the afternoon, and the nightly low will drop once again due to the radiative cooling.
