Issued: 11pm on Saturday, December 23rd 2023
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short-term Forecast (Sunday 12/24/23 through Tuesday 12/26/23):
Scattered showers are expected to end by late morning Sunday as the weak mid-level shortwave exits the region, and an upper-level ridge builds in from the west. This ridge will allow for a dry and warm Christmas Eve due to the WAA from the southerly flow. Afternoon temperatures are expected to reach the upper 50s, unseasonably warm for this time of year. Furthermore, due to the subsidence due to the upper-level ridge, skies are expected to clear significantly, with only a few clouds during the afternoon.
Southerly flow will increase into Monday as the deep-closed low continues east toward the region. WAA will continue, and afternoon temperatures will climb into the low 60s as a result. Fortunately, it looks like Christmas will be a dry one for the most part until Monday night when rain ahead of the occlusion/warm front enters the region. Widespread showers will be expected overnight Monday and through Tuesday. At this time, winds will also pick up between 10-15 mph with gusts possibly up to 25 mph. Showers will become more scattered in nature Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning with the passage of the cold front associated with the closed low.
Long-term Forecast (Wednesday 12/27/23 through Saturday 12/30/23):
The cold front will bring in a large cold air mass to the region that will begin to decrease temperatures in the coming days. We will immediately see the impact Wednesday as the afternoon high is only expected in the low 50s. Some remnant showers from the occluded low are possible on Wednesday and Thursday and may produce some mixed precipitation as temperatures continue to decline – only a high in the low 40s is expected on Thursday.
Another trough to the NE will impact the region Friday and bring another swath of cold air from the north. Long-term models suggest scattered mixed precipitation showers Friday that will eventually turn into scattered snow showers Saturday for the region.
Sunday – Monday afternoon: Dry and warm.
Monday evening – Tuesday: Rainy and warm. Winds begin to pick up.
Wednesday – Saturday: Temperatures begin to decline to more seasonally expected values with scattered rain, mixed, and eventually snow showers on Saturday.