Issued: 11pm on Sunday, June 23rd 2024
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short-term Forecast (Monday 6/23/2024 through Thursday 6/26/2024):
Ridging will take place with surface high pressure Monday. The resulting subsidence will allow for skies to clear and a sunny afternoon Monday. The cooler air mass following Sunday evening’s cold front will remain, allowing high temperatures to only peak in the mid-80s, near normal Monday. However, humidity will remain as dewpoints look to be in the mid-to-upper-50s.
High temperatures will climb back into the low 90s Tuesday with the passing of another warm front. Cloud cover will slowly increase through the afternoon as a shortwave begins to push into the area. It will be overhead Wednesday with another cold front, bringing widespread showers and thunderstorms throughout the day. Models suggest up to 2 KJ/kg of CAPE will be present Wednesday morning providing ample lift for showers and thunderstorms, though shear does look weak with current model runs.
Thursday high pressure will build in behind Wednesday’s system with cooler air settling as well. Highs are only projected to be in the mid-80s once again with sunny skies.
Long-term Forecast (Friday 6/27/2024 through Sunday 6/29/2024):
Cloud cover will increase throughout the day Friday as another impending trough moves east, and the warm front lifts to the NE, forcing temperatures back into the low-90s. The afternoon should remain dry, though. Saturday afternoon will warm further into the mid-90s as SE Ohio awaits the cold front that will pass sometime Saturday evening and into very early Sunday morning. Showers and thunderstorms will once again be possible with this disturbance.
