Issued: 11pm on Sunday, June 30th 2024
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short-term Forecast (Monday 7/1/2024 through Wednesday 7/3/2024):
A high pressure ridge will begin to move overhead Monday. As a result, dry weather and sunny skies will return for the time being. Northerly/northeasterlty flow will allow cooler air to be advected into the region, causing Monday’s high to remain in the upper-70s to low-80s. Dewpoints will also only be in the mid-to-upper-30s throughout the afternoon, giving us a break from the muggy/humid afternoons we have been experiencing these last few weeks. Thus, Monday is definitely an afternoon to go out and enjoy!
Tuesday flow will become more southerly, advecting warm, moist air into the region. Temperatures will peak back into the mid-to-upper-80s as a result. Temperatures will continue to climb on Wednesday as the southerly flow is maintained. Wednesday, the ridge will become flattened with zonal flow aloft and the warm front will lift through the area. A smaller shortwave will move through Wednesday night, bringing scattered showers and possible thunderstorms to the area.
Long-term Forecast (Thursday 7/4/2024 through Sunday 7/7/2024):
Unfortunately, scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue for the Fourth of July, with dewpoints in the 70s and strong instability present (CAPE ~ 2Kj/kg). There is the possibility of a clearing in the evening for a show, but as in this post, we only have long-range models to rely on. Check back on Thursday for more details on storm timing! The low will stall Friday and Saturday, causing scattered showers to continue as well. Dry weather should return Sunday, though, as zonal flow returns aloft.
