Issued: 11pm on Sunday, November 14th 2021
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short Term (Sunday 11-14-2021 through Tuesday 11-16-2021)
A strong short-wave trough which developed over northern plains on Saturday evening dived southward through Sunday morning into Illinois area. This trough then quickly moved through our area as of late Sunday evening and it will continue to look to move eastward into northeast areas by Monday morning. While this trough moved through Ohio Valley, we also had a strong wind vorticity move by us as well which allowed for a surface storm to form over Great Lakes area. As the storm moved through, it brought mix of snow and rain for much of the region along with strong wind gusts right behind this system. For Sunday night, expect lingering flurries to remain in the area as the storm departs, but otherwise a overcast night for us. While the axis of main trough moves east of our area, we are still at the western end of this and remaining chilly again as of result for Monday. This pattern on surface is translating to a surface high pressure quickly move across Tennessee, allowing for some breaks. There is one more quick weaker upper level disturbance looks to move through our area which may bring isolated snow showers Monday evening briefly, before it comes to an end with little to no accumulations. As we head into Tuesday, the upper level ridge begins to push into our area and allow for not only heights to increase, but we also return closer to normal temperature wise during the daytime hours. While this ridge moves over us, there is another potent short-wave over Saskatchewan area which allows surface low to form in that area. A warm front is expected to extend all the way down to northern Kentucky from this very low pressure area and is expected to continue lift northward through some time during Tuesday evening with mild night in store for us. Temperature wise, look for highs to be in low to mid 40’s and warm up into mid 50’s with lows in lower 30’s for Sunday and Monday night with lows in lower 40’s. for Tuesday night. Overall temperature anomalies look to be 4°F-8°F below normal.
Long Term (Wednesday 11-17-2021 through Saturday 11-20-2021)
Long term period resumes with presence of the ridge overhead while a trough moves and expands over northern plains region and is gradually moving eastward and intensifying a bit at same time. On surface, we have a nice fetch of southwesterly flow behind the surface high pressure in mid-atlantic which will allow our temperatures to warm up several degrees above normal with breezy conditions as well during daytime hours on Wednesday. As we move through Wednesday night, the ridge continues to push eastward and the trough from west immediately takes hold of our area by Thursday morning. Arrival of the trough is marked by a strong cold front which is extending down at its leading edge courtesy of low pressure over northern Ontario and we will see rain falling along this front as well. Timing of rain looks to be from early Thursday morning to early afternoon hours with air temperatures falling through out the day so high temperatures would peak just after midnight hours. This trough is expected to be rather short lived as it exits our area by Friday afternoon with another area of upper level ridge developing in middle of the country. This ridge will be slightly weaker this time, but will push into our area by late Friday evening at settle in our area through Saturday. This pattern on surface will translate to strong surface high moving into Illinois area and clouds will clear out as a result of this under continues chilly conditions. This due to the fact that we are still under the northerly flow from the high pressure. High pressure then moves right over us as we head into Saturday so our temperatures will start to recover once again under continued clear skies. Temperatures start out on a warm note on Wednesday with high’s in upper 60’s which drop down to a early high of mid 50’s on Thursday due to passage of cold front and finally bottom out to mid-upper 40’s for Friday and Saturday. Low temperatures on Wednesday night will fall through upper 40’s with lows dropping into mid-upper 20’s Thursday and Friday night which warms up to lower 30’s for Saturday night. Our overall temperature anomalies during this period will average out to being right near normal conditions despite bit of a temperature roller coaster.
