Issued: 12am on Saturday, October 28th 2023
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short-Term (Saturday 10/28/2023 through Sunday 10/29/2023):
A large longwave upper-level trough is making its way across the US. This trough is bringing with it a surface low-pressure system to the region which will push a cold front through the region sometime this morning into the afternoon. The trough is aided by some upper-level PVA, but this upper-level jet is rather zonal and not a very deep trough. However, a good drop in daytime temperature is in store for the region with daytime highs expected later on only as high as 48 degrees by Tuesday. For the short term, rain showers will persist with a slight chance for a rumble of thunder today with some slight instability in place with CAPE values around 400 J/kg. Looking like a wet HallOUweekend!
Long-Term (Monday 10/30/2023 through Wednesday 11/01/2023):
Monday, rain showers are expected to persist as this upper-level jet continues east. As this jet pushes east, the left entrance of the jet streak will be over our region aligning well with a strong surge of PVA. This PVA is going to help an embedded shortwave trough that is digging deep into the region on Tuesday into Wednesday, which looks to bring in a blast of colder air even after the cold frontal passage, dropping daytime highs even further as previously mentioned. Wednesday, some calmer upper-levels will make way for the formation of a high-pressure system that will hopefully start to dry things out for the last half of the work week. This high-pressure system should make way for some more sunny skies and a bump in the daytime high temperature.
Synopsis:
Saturday-Sunday: Rain and clouds, cool down expected.
Monday-Tuesday: Rain continues, temperatures drop further and rain tapers off, clouds begin to clear. Happy Halloween!!
Wednesday: Clouds clear out further and drier conditions start to settle in.
