Issued: 11am on Friday, August 25th 2023
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short-term (Friday 8/25/2023 through Sunday 8/27/2023):
The strong high-pressure ridge that has influenced our weather this week is expected to begin to break down and shift further west Saturday into Sunday as a more active pattern begins to develop. Some troughing is anticipated in the region as a surface low-pressure system develops over central Ohio. This system is bringing in cold air advection from the north, which brought some precipitation to the state last night and early this morning. This cold front is expected to drop temperatures this weekend and into next week to below average for this time of the year, providing some relief from the hotter temperatures we have had lately. The area is under a Marginal Risk for severe weather today due to the threat of damaging winds and possible hail. CAPE values are forecast to be around 3,500-4,000 J/kg today, which is more than sufficient for some stronger thunderstorms; however, any storms that do fire will remain mostly isolated this afternoon. One limiting factor in thunderstorm development this afternoon is the lack of bulk shear in the atmosphere, with models resolving shear around 20 to 30 knots and dropping during the late afternoon as the cold front passes through the Athens area.
Through the weekend, more calm weather is expected with cooler temperatures after the cold front passes, and high pressure is expected to build in behind the cold front despite the upper-level pattern not having very strong ridging. This indicates a slight warm-up and mostly dry weather, but temperatures are still expected to stay below average for this time of the year.
Long-term (Monday 8/28/2023 through Thursday 8/31/2023):
Monday, a shortwave trough is expected to develop and move over Ohio, associated with a maturing surface low that is anticipated over the Great Lakes region. The low will likely be occluded by the time it brings any impacts to our area and be in the weakening stages of the cyclone. This system is not expected at this time to have any significant impacts, but there is a chance for showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday associated with the cold front that will likely sweep through from this system. Tuesday into Wednesday, a much stronger trough is expected to push through the region with strong PVA downstream, bringing a second cold front to our region. This will likely not yield much precipitation, as shown by the WPC precipitation map and the CPC temperature and precipitation outlook, but it will mean more pleasant temperatures for the majority of the first week of school as classes start back up on the Athens campus! For the rest of the long term, high pressure will build in after the passage of this second cold front and likely provide clear skies and very enjoyable conditions for the end of the week!
Synopsis:
Friday-Sunday: Possible isolated showers and thunderstorms, with a few being stronger, then dry and pleasant weather for the weekend.
Monday-Wednesday: Precipitation chances are back on Monday and Tuesday, with Wednesday looking mostly clear with cooler air from a second cold frontal passage.
Thursday: High pressure, with mostly clear weather and pleasant conditions!
