Issued: 1pm on Thursday, April 20th 2023
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short Term (Thursday 4-20-23 through Sunday 4-23-23)
The southeast Ohio region is currently in the warm sector of a deepening low pressure system out in the Plains, providing us with very warm, dry, and gusty conditions. For Thursday and Friday, this pattern will persist, and these combined conditions will provide an elevated risk for fire danger. At the time of writing, a Red Flag Warning has been issued for much of the region until 8pm EDT on Thursday. Southwest winds will have the potential to gust up to 25mph in some spots with relative humidity values dropping into the teens, which will cause any active wildfires to rapidly spread. Much of Friday looks to be dry as well as upper ridging and surface high pressure remain in place, continuing the risk of fire danger. However, rain chances will make an appearance on Friday night with the approach of the aforementioned low pressure system, distinguishing the elevated fire danger these next couple days. Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible, but nothing severe is expected, rather the main threats will be gusty winds and heavy downpours. Rain chances will then dissipate by Saturday night after the frontal passage, leaving dry and cooler weather in its wake as upper ridging and surface high pressure become the dominant feature once again.
Long Term (Monday 4-24-23 through Thursday 4-27-23)
With the previously mentioned drier and cooler conditions expected, widespread frost will be possible Monday and Tuesday night, potentially killing any outdoor vegetation that is left uncovered. Chances for precipitation will return on Wednesday into Thursday as a longwave trough and surface low pressure system begin to influence the region.
