Issued: 1pm on Thursday, February 16th 2023
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short Term (Thursday 2-16-23 through Sunday 2-19-23)
At the surface, a stationary front is currently draped over the southeast Ohio region, providing us with rain (some heavy at times) this Thursday morning. At the upper levels, a positively tilted longwave trough is making its way over from the southern U.S., bringing a surface low pressure system and cold front along with it. This will arrive Thursday night, bringing gusty winds and a marginal risk for severe weather as a pressure gradient tightens and cold front has sufficient instability out ahead of it. The main threats for any storms that do develop will be damaging winds and heavy downpours. Gusts up to 30mph will be possible, so isolated power outages and tree damage will be a threat. After the longwave trough pushes out and to the east by Thursday evening, the surface low and cold front will therefore push out as well, bringing an end to the chances for severe weather and advecting cold air in relatively quickly. This will transition any lingering rain to snow overnight Thursday into Friday, but no real accumulation is expected.
Heading into the weekend, conditions will be dry after a more active pattern as broad ridging that has been building over the Pacific northwest the past couple days builds over much of the U.S, as well as surface high pressure. Despite there being southerly flow, cooler air will still linger around on Saturday, but by Sunday, a slight warming trend will begin, with highs near 60.
Long Term (Monday 2-20-23 through Thursday 2-23-23)
Precipitation chances will return on Monday as a shortwave trough is expected to impact the area. With a warming trend still continuing throughout the week, all precipitation will be in the form of rain. An active pattern looks to continue for much of the week as the GFS shows a southern low bringing more rain to us Wednesday evening into Thursday.