Issued: 12pm on Thursday, January 11th 2024
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short-Term (Thursday 1/11/2024 through Sunday 1/14/2024):
A very active pattern has settled in over the CONUS and will be very active for the eastern U.S. affecting our region over the next few days. A very deep trough gaining a negative tilt with strong PVA is moving towards the Ohio Valley from the central U.S. and is a sign that this surface low pressure is strengthening. The upper-level low is expected to be closed off and begin to occlude at the surface as the cold front and warm front merge. This is going to bring lots of pre-frontal rain into the region, but as the cold front moves through Friday night, rain is expected to mix with snow and become all snow by Saturday morning as temperatures drop below freezing. Strong winds are also expected as this low-pressure system deepens to around 977 mb estimated from current model runs, which is VERY strong.
Another sign of a deepening low is the vertical alignment of the 850 mb and 500 mb low, which indicates that this system is continuing to fill in and gain more mass leading to a stronger pressure gradient and windy conditions at the surface as convergence maximizes. Winds on Friday/Friday night are expected to be sustained around 20-30 mph, and some gusts could exceed 45 mph. This will potentially lead to the issuance of a wind advisory from the NWS. Snow accumulations through this weekend are not expected to be much more than trace amounts and locally up to 0.2″ – 0.3″ in spots, but strong winds will likely lead to any accumulating snow blowing.
Toward the end of the weekend, wraparound moisture from the low will lead to lingering snow flurries/showers with cold air on the backside of the low. Temperatures are expected to plummet with this arctic air mass moving in with the daytime high Sunday being in the mid-to-high 20s, and the overnight low just around 12 degrees. Along with the cold temperatures, wind chills are anticipated to be in the single digits and possibly dropping as low as -5 degrees with breezy to windy conditions.
Long-Term (M.L.K. Day 1/15/2024 through Wednesday 1/17/2024):
Starting the week, snow showers will stick around with moisture from the low-pressure system, but as this system pushes northeast, slight upper-level ridging will move in ahead of another longwave trough pattern. This will not provide much relief from wintry conditions as the cold air is expected to stick around for the time being, but clouds will clear out a little bit. This next longwave trough associated with a very strong upper-level jet will bring more snow showers to the region, but thankfully a strong surface low will likely not develop with this trough.
By Wednesday, surface high pressure is expected to build in behind the longwave and conditions look to clear up for at least a little bit with clearer skies and dryer conditions, but after the passage of another cold front very frigid temperatures will stick around.
Synopsis:
Thursday – Friday AM: Dry conditions with warmer weather expected, rain moving in Friday AM ahead of the occlusion, breezy to windy conditions Friday AM.
Friday PM – Sunday: Rain changing to snow with windy and gusty conditions moving in, temperatures plummet, and low wind chills.
Monday – Wednesday: Lingering snow showers/flurries and somewhat clearer skies, frigid temperatures stick around.
