Issued: 1pm on Thursday, March 14th 2024
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short-term Forecast (Thursday 3/14 through Sunday 3/17):
Thursday afternoon SE Ohio will remain in the warm sector, meaning another warm afternoon is in store for the region. Afternoon temperatures are expected to climb into the mid-70s, and skies will remain mostly sunny for the time being. RH values will also remain low this afternoon, and with wind gusts between 15-25 mph, there is an elevated fire risk this afternoon (Hazardous Weather Outlook).
Furthermore, the Storm Prediction Center currently has the region in a Marginal (1/5) risk for thunderstorms, which are expected to begin as early as 4/5 pm or as late as 10/11 pm, as the CAMs are still not in complete agreement yet. The main threats for SE Ohio are strong winds and hail. We will provide storm updates as needed on our social media pages. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue overnight; however, scattered non-severe showers will take over Friday morning and into the afternoon. Friday afternoon temperatures will remain warm until the cold front passes during the afternoon/evening hours. Additionally, skies will begin to clear behind the cold front, allowing temperatures to fall further due to radiative cooling.
Another trough will move in beginning Saturday, but conditions will remain stable. So, skies should remain partly clear and the day dry through Sunday afternoon. A cooling trend will occur, though, as another cold front moves through Sunday morning.
Long-term Forecast (Monday 3/18 through Wednesday 3/20):
Monday, a deep, positively tilted trough will be overhead. Long-range models suggest that snow flurries might be in the forecast Monday morning/early afternoon, which is likely due to the strong CAA that will take place and the strength of the system due to the strong PVA aloft. A secondary shortwave will follow behind Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning, which may bring another round of flurries, though chances are even lower than Monday morning. The Climate Prediction Center outlines below-average temperatures for this period due to the strength of the system and anticipated CAA. Afternoon highs will range in the 40s, and overnight lows will fall into the low-30s and mid-20s.
