Issued: 1pm on Thursday, May 11th 2023
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short Term (Thursday 5-11-23 through Sunday 5-14-23)
Upper level ridging and high pressure at the surface have been providing beautiful weather for much of this past week. However, this pattern is soon going to change, as several upper level shortwave disturbances are expected to bring unsettled weather this weekend. Clouds will begin to increase Thursday afternoon ahead of a warm front that will turn stationary, igniting chances for showers and thunderstorms as early as late Thursday night into Friday morning. The storm prediction center only has the southeast Ohio region in the general area for thunderstorms, so nothing severe is expected. If anything, the main threats will be locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds. Friday and Saturday are likely to be the heavy soaker days as the first of rounds of shortwave disturbances moves through the ridging pattern, as well as a closed low pressure from the Plains. Rainfall totals between 1 to 2 inches are forecasted by the weather prediction center on Friday alone. A stronger shortwave disturbance aloft is then expected to impact the region on Saturday, bringing an additional 1 to possibly 2 inches of rainfall. At the surface, a cold front will push through sometime on Saturday as well ending the greatest rain chances altogether by Saturday night at the latest. A slight chance of rain showers will still exist on Sunday as another shortwave disturbance tries to move through the ridging pattern.
Long Term (Monday 5-15-23 through Thursday 5-18-23)
The long term forecast looks to be relatively quiet as high pressure at the surface begins to take control, providing sunny skies and mild temperatures. Slight chances for showers and thunderstorms will be a possibility again mid week as a cold front sags southward on Wednesday.
