Issued: 1pm on Thursday, May 18th 2023
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short Term (Thursday 5-18-23 through Sunday 5-21-23)
Upper level ridging and high pressure at the surface has kept much of the week dry, but this pattern will soon change as a low pressure system sends a strong cold through the region Friday evening through Saturday. The closer the cold front gets Friday night, the higher the chances for precipitation will be as the most lift will be right ahead of the front. No severe storms are expected to develop, with minimal instability present to develop any stronger storms. If anything, the main threats will be strong winds and heavy downpours. With the recent showers that occurred earlier this week, the threat for flooding is minimal at best. After the front moves through, precipitation chances will diminish from west to east. This is looking more and more likely to occur earlier in the day on Saturday than expected. Since drier air will be filtering in behind the frontal passage, Saturday evening will likely be a cooler, clear night as upper level ridging and surface high pressure again become the dominant weather pattern. Temperatures will rebound to the 80s by Sunday, with pleasant weather and abundant sunshine.
Long Term (Monday 5-22-23 through Thursday 5-25-23)
The long term forecast is rather quiet, as strong upper level ridging and high pressure at the surface build into the region for the week. This will bring abundant sunshine and temperatures rising into the mid 80s. Make sure to get out and enjoy the sunshine!