Issued: 1pm on Thursday, November 23rd 2023
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short-Term (Thursday 11/23/2023 through Sunday 11/26/2023):
Zonal flow aloft is dominating right now after the passage of a dry cold front at the surface to keep things nice for Thanksgiving, and easy holiday travel! Heading into the weekend, the upper-level jet will push off to the east and upper-level ridging will take its place over our region with a push of NVA. This ridge will further assist high pressure, clearing things out to start the weekend. Upper-level moisture advection into the region will keep some clouds around however for the time being.
Sunday, a positively tilted trough is expected to start to move into the region, bringing moisture and warm air with a cold front from the surface low. This system is expected to strengthen as is passes over us with strong PVA in the base of the trough, but mostly rain is expected in the short term as the trough gains a neutral tilt.
Long-Term (Monday 11/27/2023 through Wednesday 11/30/2023):
The low-pressure system moving in is not expected to be too impactful, but on the backside of the low with colder temperatures behind the cold front, a few flurries could be possible. Zonal flow will dominate once again after the passage of this trough, and much drier air with NVA is expected to push into the region.
The next system of concern is a shortwave trough that will be possible moving into the region Wednesday evening into Thursday, so despite drier air, we can expect some precipitation possible. Stay tuned to later forecasts for a better idea of the conditions mid-week!
Thursday – Saturday: Drier conditions and clear weather expected, Happy Thanksgiving!
Sunday – Monday: Increasing clouds and high chance for rain, flurries possible late Sunday PM into Monday.
Tuedsay – Wednesday: Drier weather conditions with building high pressure.