Issued: 8pm on Sunday, July 14th 2024
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short-term Forecast (Sunday 7/14/2024 through Tuesday 7/16/2024):
Hot conditions will persist over the next couple of days with high temperatures in the upper 90s and heat indices expected to spike into triple digits. This is mainly due to high pressure dominating our region once again allowing plenty of daytime heating for these blazing mid-July temperatures. At this time, no heat products have been issued by the NWS due to uncertainty with cloud cover due to the convective nature of these conditions. Even so, it is important to remember to stay safe in the heat by staying hydrated, wearing sunscreen and finding shade if your are to be outdoors, and checking in on loved ones to ensure everyone is staying cool and healthy. Instability and daytime increased insolation will allow for plenty of convection and the chance for evening pop-up showers and thunderstorms nightly. These will be driven by vorticity at 500 mb entering the area from the west. The highest chance for any of these storms to be severe will be Tuesday with the chance for increased wind gusts breaking 20mph. These storms will ignite following forcing from a shortwave trough breaking into the region.
Long-term Forecast (Wednesday 7/17/2024 through Saturday 7/20/2024):
A cold front will pass through Wednesday delivering cooler conditions and a break from the 90 degree highs. This front will also deliver increased rainfall that could pose some risks for flooding but will otherwise be beneficial to the region. The rest of the week will stay much calmer than the beginning with high pressure returning to the region clearing our skies and keeping our temperatures in the mid to upper 80s. The chance for pop-up convectively driven thunderstorms and showers will remain in place but is less likely due to the cooler conditions and lesser instability.