Issued: 2pm on Sunday, July 3rd 2022
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short Term (Sunday 7-3-22 through Thursday 7-7-22)
The ridging pattern that has mostly dominated the region this past week has begun to flatten through the weekend, making way for another ridging pattern to develop across the Plains and introduce a consistent chance for rain and thunderstorms, as well as the potential for severe weather by midweek for our region. A weak cold front will pass near the southernmost border of Ohio later on Sunday, which could introduce showers across far southern Ohio by the evening. Following the passage of this feature, most of the 4th of July holiday should remain relatively dry as the high pressure slowly shifts off to the east, but clouds will increase throughout the day with the departure of the high pressure.
The development of this ridging pattern, combined with several different features and trends, will make for complex setups throughout the week that will be difficult to forecast. However, if several features align correctly, there could be the potential for severe weather, specifically strong, damaging winds, as most of these storms will be MCS’s. Our region will sit along the periphery of the ridge, putting us in the prime position to be impacted by several shortwave disturbances throughout the week, with prime conditions ahead of them to further induce storm development, including shear introduced by the stronger jet stream winds. Weaker surface features may also be present, which will introduce an instability gradient, which, combined with the shear, could turn these storms severe. The alignment of all these features, combined with the time of day, will be the deciding factor in when, where and how severe these storms will become. Since there will be little to no change in the flow pattern, temperatures will remain fairly consistent throughout the week, with highs around 90 and lows around 70.
Long Term (Friday 7-8-22 through Sunday 7-10-22)
This pattern will continue throughout most of the weekend, at least Friday and Saturday, with these diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms as the ridge lingers over the region. Finally, it appears a cold front crosses the region late Saturday and into Sunday, carrying the last chance for rain with it as high pressure regains control for the start of next week.
