Issued: 2pm on Thursday, February 23rd 2023
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short Term (Thursday 2-23-23 through Sunday 2-26-23)
A warm frontal passage with the help of a low level jet has created some breezy conditions for Thursday, as well as well above average temperatures for this time of year. These temperatures will rise into the mid 70s by Thursday afternoon before the arrival of a low pressure system and associated cold front Thursday night, which will unfortunately cool down temperatures back into the 30s overnight. This cold front will be moisture starved, so only light precipitation is expected. By Friday morning, the cold front will have pushed east through the region, ushering in cold air advection and causing temperatures to only be in the mid 40s by Friday afternoon. These temperatures are actually normal for February, but will definitely feel cold compared to the warm weather we have been spoiled with! Yet another warm front is expected to lift north Friday night, bringing slight chances for rain on Saturday and also creating a gradual warming trend by the end of the weekend. Conditions will then briefly clear out Saturday night into much of Sunday before an upper level shortwave trough approaches the area, as well as a surface low pressure system. This system will bring chances for rain heading into next week.
Long Term (Monday 2-27-23 through Thursday 3-2-23)
The aforementioned surface low pressure system will approach the Great Lakes by Monday night, sending both the associated warm and cold fronts through our area and therefore providing rain through at least Monday night. Upper level ridging and surface high pressure will then build in on Tuesday, bringing an end to any lingering rain by Tuesday afternoon. Conditions should remain dry through Wednesday night before the next system arrives, which will consist of a longwave trough sending a low pressure system into our area on Thursday.