Issued: 2pm on Thursday, March 16th 2023
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short Term (Thursday 3/16/2023 through Sunday 3/19/2023)
Currently, high pressure is dominating, allowing clear skies and low dew points with column descent. As upper level ridging passes east overnight into tomorrow (Friday), our region is introduced to a deep troughing pattern with a developing low pressure system that is currently planted in the north central United States. Warm air advection is associated with this transitioning pattern, so we will see a nice pocket of warm, moist air enter the area. This moisture will fuel the low pressure, and we will see our overnight low remain warmer than average as a result. While we see rain enter the area as soon as the early morning hours on Friday, the cold frontal passage will occur mid-day on Friday. With this passage, expect a significant drop in temperature as well as increased wind gusts up to 25 mph – wind chill WILL play a factor with this passing front. Overall, the bulk of this system is expected to last through the majority of Friday with some lingering showers into the overnight hours into Saturday. With such a significant drop in temperature, the overnight lows will climb below freezing this weekend, which warrants a winter coat and the increased likelihood for slick travel conditions.
Saturday and Sunday are left to be below average, in regards to temperature, with cold air advection downstream of the trough. Following closely behind the low will be a dominant high pressure, and so when we see a quick transition in weather conditions, expect winds to kick up quickly. Wind chills will play a large role in making our already below average temperatures feel even colder.
Long Term (Sunday 3/19/2023 through Thursday 3/23/2023)
High pressure still dominates for the early part of the week, and as a result, we will see a warming trend. Temperatures climb close to average Monday before they climb well above average for the middle of the week. Models are not quite in agreement with a developing low down South, which means that there is a chance for rain that is likely to develop. However, because models aren’t quite agreeing, the forecast for mid-week until Thursday remains low confidence.