Issued: 2pm on Thursday, September 14th 2023
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short-Term (Thursday PM 9/14/2023 through Saturday 9/16/2023):
The trough that has been driving the weather the last couple of days has pushed off to the east. Upper-level ridging is expected to move over the region, which will support upper-level convergence and subsidence, strengthening high pressure at the surface. This upper-level ridge is also associated with some stronger NVA aloft, helping this surface high a little more. This strong high-pressure system will be associated with a slight warming trend over the next few days, with temperatures still remaining seasonal and very comfortable. To complement these temperatures, dew points in the lower 40s will also keep things relatively comfortable and not too sticky outside.
Saturday, a positively tilted trough is going to move in from the west, which will be the start of some slightly more active weather for the weekend. As this high pressure gets pushed out, we expect clouds to increase on Saturday as the associated cold front with this trough pushes eastward.
Long-Term (Sunday 9/17/2023 through Wednesday 9/20/2023):
The positive-tilt trough moving into the region will have Athens and its surrounding counties placed near the left exit region of the upper-level jet streak, assisting the low-pressure system at the surface with the most divergence aloft and PVA in the jet streak. This surface low is expected to track over the Great Lakes, but the cold front is expected to move through our region sometime on Sunday. This front is not expected to be particularly strong, but it will cool things slightly into the mid-70s. Severe weather is not expected with this system at this time.
Monday through Thursday, a longer stretch of quiet weather is expected after the passage of this trough. Surface high pressure will be aided by subsidence towards the left entrance region of the upper-level jet streak, and this high pressure will bring nice warm and sunny weather to the region for the majority of the long-term forecast period. Things look to possibly dry out a little bit with this high pressure, and with the fall fire season in Ohio coming up, it is important to be safe and check local regulations when doing any outdoor burning.
Synopsis:
Thursday PM-Friday: Sunny and dry conditions with comfortable temperatures.
Saturday: Increasing cloud coverage throughout the day.
Sunday-Wednesday: Showers and thunderstorms with a slight cool down with a cold front passing through.
