Issued: 3pm on Saturday, September 9th 2023
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short-Term (Saturday Afternoon 9/9/2023 through Sunday 9/10/2023):
A weakened trough from a low-pressure system that has moved on to the east is going to linger over the region and will become cut off through the upper levels today. This trough is very weak but will still provide enough upper-level convergence in the atmosphere to bring a slight chance of rain showers today. The trough, which is continuing to weaken, will linger over Sunday and bring slight chances for general showers and thunderstorms on Sunday. High pressure is also beginning to build in at the surface, and this system is expected to track further northeast over our region, so this system should provide for some nicer weather beyond the short-term forecast.
Long-Term (Monday 9/11/2023 through Wednesday 9/13/2023):
Monday, an upper-level jet associated with a strengthening trough is going to push over the region, provide more subsidence, and strengthen the surface high-pressure system, which will make for a nice day. This system is forming a surface low over the Great Lakes, and stronger positive vorticity advection over the Great Lakes is going to help strengthen this low. As the low pushes further east, it will have plenty of time to mature and get a relatively strong cold front together, which is expected sometime on Tuesday. This cold front will bring temperatures even lower in the low 70s during the daytime, but on Tuesday there will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms as it traverses the Ohio Valley. There is no severe weather risk outlined by the Storm Prediction Center at this time, but keep an eye out for updated forecasts to be sure of what to expect. Wednesday, nice weather returns as surface high-pressure will build in on the backside of this trough, assisted by strong upper-level ridging and NVA around the base of the trough.
Synopsis:
Saturday Afternoon-Sunday: Slight chances of showers and thunderstorms are possible on Sunday.
Monday-Tuesday: Increasing clouds, showers, and thunderstorms are possible; some may be strong on Tuesday.
Wednesday: Clear and calm fall-like weather!
