Issued: 3pm on Monday, May 20th 2024
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short-term Forecast (Monday 5/20 through Thursday 5/23):
High pressure will continue to dominate Monday through early Tuesday afternoon. Skies will remain mostly sunny and hot, to say the least. According to the Climate Prediction Center, afternoon temperatures will be well above average for this time of year, climbing into the upper 80s and potentially low 90s on Tuesday. A few garden-variety thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon/evening.
A trough will begin to move in Wednesday. The SPC currently has a slight risk (2/5) out NW of SE Ohio, where the right entrance of the upper-level jet streak is located (and associated with enhanced vertical motion). Models show low amounts of CAPE (instability) and shear present. Therefore, it is possible that SE Ohio may see some strong thunderstorms, but they should remain weak. A cold front will move through Wednesday night/Thursday evening, bringing more showers to the area. Up to an inch of rain is anticipated to fall during this round. Additionally, temperatures will drop down to the low 80s on Thursday afternoon.
Long-term Forecast (Friday 5/24 through Sunday 5/26):
Friday afternoon looks to be mostly dry, and zonal flow takes place, but by Friday night, an upper-level shortwave moves in, bringing with it another round of showers, which may add up to another half-inch of rain to the area. Another shortwave looks to move through Saturday evening through Sunday, once again bringing additional rain to the region. Sunday may bring the potential for thunderstorms, as models suggest we will be located in the left exit of the jet streak, as well as have decent MUCAPE and bulk shear values.
