Issued: 3pm on Tuesday, August 31st 2021
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short Term (Tuesday 8-31-2021 through Thursday 9-2-2021)
Remnants of Hurricane Ida, currently over southwestern Tennessee, will slowly be pushing northeastward through next 2 days. At the same time, a cold front has been slowly pushing southeastward and eventually clear out of state through late morning hours of Wednesday. Remains of Ida will eventually merge with the cold front and move east into Pennsylvania by late Wednesday. The combinations of forcing from the cold front, rain bands from Ida, and its moisture merge together, we will start to see a focus band of moderate to heavy rain developing starting late Tuesday evening through late Wednesday afternoon which forms directly over our area and extend into much of central Pennsylvania. Rainfall totals are expected to be in order of 1″-3″, locally 4″ at the end of this event. Surface high pressure will settle immediately behind this storm which will put an end to rainfall risk, heat, and miserable humidity we have endured for quite some time with plenty of sunshine on Thursday. Our temperatures during this stretch is expected to remain few degrees to several degrees below the seasonable averages as a broad area of mid-level trough is currently overhead which is not expected to anywhere through short term period. Temperatures will be in mid-upper 70’s with lows in upper 50’s, with exception of tomorrow morning which will be in mid 60’s.
Long Term (Friday 9-3-2021 through Monday 9-6-2021)
Long range forecast begins with a change in 500mb pattern as heights are expected to rise once again slightly with mid-level ridge developing over southern plains region for Friday through first half of Saturday. Given that our area will be at the edge of this ridge, under northwest flow, beautiful fall like weather remain in place with continued sunshine and low humidity. From late Saturday afternoon through about Monday period, our weather pattern will consist of broad trough over Mid-West, Ohio Valley, and Northeast areas which will continue to keep 5°F-10°F below normal temperature departures in place for us with continued lower humidity. Weather conditions should mostly remain dry during this period with only exception would be Saturday afternoon and evening when we could see some showers and thunderstorm out ahead of board trough approaching our area, then surface high pressure settles over Ohio Valley Sunday and Monday. Temperatures during this period will be in middle 70’s for highs with lows dropping into low-mid 50’s! True September weather is upon us.
