Issued: 4pm on Sunday, July 30th 2023
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short-term (Sunday 7/30/2023 through Tuesday 8/2/2023):
Currently, a troughing pattern has developed with a jetstreak placed in the northernmost part of Ohio and above. Mainly zonal flow is present, and will persist for the next few days. Around Monday, the trough will deepen as it becomes more longwave. A slight vorticity max is possible in the evening as the jetstreak lowers into the area, placing us in the left-exit region. Some chances for severe weather are possible more in the more north-westward regions of Ohio, but by the time any precipitation reaches Southeastern Ohio, instability will be relatively stabilized as a result of the sun setting. Therefore, only relatively scattered showers and thunderstorms could be observed around this time. As the week continues, the trough will continue to deepen, with the right-exit region of the jetstreak becoming stationed over our area. Additionally, strong anticyclonic vorticity in Illinois and Iowa will keep this pattern more stationary, and as the trough becomes more longwave, it will become much slower and stay in a relatively similar location. At the surface, a cold-core high pressure will be prevalent, making for cooler seasonable temperatures and dryer days as the high pressure keeps the maritime moisture present in the ridge out of our area.
Long-term (Wednesday 8/3/2023 through Saturday 8/7/2023):
Thursday will have jetstreak shift slightly northward, placing us in the left-exit region once more, potentially creating another chance for inclement weather near the evening hours. The trough still remains very slow moving, and being placed underneath the jetstreak could see windy weather for Southeastern Ohio during these days. Additionally, more clouds are possible, with some chances of diurnal showers and thunderstorms as a result. Lower pressure is possible during this time due to more cyclonic motion. Moisture will slowly begin to creep into the region as a small ridge begins to move in, pushing the trough eastward, though Saturday will remain somewhat dry. Higher pressure will build within this developing ridge, leading to some more calm weather temporarily. Temperatures for the most part will be seasonal, but warm-air advection is possible late Sunday as a low pressure over the Dakotas will begin to propagate into Ohio. A midlatitude cyclone is possible following this low, becoming more mature as it enters the Midwest.
Synopsis:
Sunday-Tuesday: Seasonably warm temperatures with a chance of scattered storms Monday evening. Dryer.
Wednesday-Friday: Windy, more cloudy and moist, with some isolated storms in the afternoons.
Saturday-Sunday: Dryer, clearer weather. Seasonably warm.
