Issued: 4pm on Sunday, July 10th 2022
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short Term (Sunday 7-10-22 through Thursday 7-14-22)
Conditions for most of this forecast period look calm, dry and unchanging, with the exception of a disturbance midweek. High pressure has built into the region throughout the day, drying out conditions following a wet and active week. This high pressure will remain in control for Monday and early Tuesday. A frontal passage will occur Tuesday during the late morning/early afternoon, carrying a line of showers and storms with it. Southeast Ohio will likely only see scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, since the boundary will pass before peak heating. Areas into WV could see more thunderstorms, some becoming severe due to more modest shear and more daytime heating. Southeast Ohio will dry out before sunset and be relatively calm for much of Wednesday. Some models are hinting at a second weak frontal passage Wednesday night, which could bring isolated showers around sunset. An upper level trough builds in with the initial frontal passage, which will make for likely the most pleasant conditions this summer, pulling in cooler and drier air from the north. Highs will remain seasonable, in the mid 80s for much of the weak.
Long Term (Friday 7-15-22 through Sunday 7-17-22)
The troughing pattern and pleasant weather continues for much of Friday. The troughing pattern will shift off to the north and east Friday night into Saturday morning, followed closely by a relatively strong ridging pattern. There could be some disturbances on the backside of the trough, creating a slight chance for isolated showers during the morning hours on Saturday. Rain clears out for Sunday, which appears to be calm, dry and warm ahead of another frontal passage on Monday.
