Issued: 4pm on Sunday, October 17th 2021
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short Term (Sunday 10-17-2021 through Tuesday 10-19-2021)
Short range period starts out with trough remaining over our region as of Sunday morning with main axis over central sections of New York and Pennsylvania while we have ridge developing over much of the plains region. Our area currently is under far western side of the trough and we are located in the gradient between these trough/ridge. This pattern on surface is translating as surface low over Hudson Bay area while the surface high over Ozarks region and this is resulting tighter gradients leading to breezy conditions today. Expect sustained winds of 10-15mph today with gusts upwards of 25mph as a result of the tighter gradients. As we head into Sunday night, the trough will depart to our east and our heights will start to rise out ahead of incoming ridge from our west. Surface high pressure will start to move much closer to our area near eastern Kentucky region tonight which will lead to reduction in winds with very chilly conditions to start out Monday morning. Upper level ridge will continue to establish itself over our area through Monday into Tuesday while surface high sits in central Appalachians region during the same time period with clear and dry conditions. General southwesterly flow behind the high will pump in milder airmass over our area and above normal conditions will once gain start to settle in. Our temperatures will gradually rise each day from mid 60’s Sunday to upper 60’s Monday and lower 70’s by Tuesday while our low temperatures will be in upper 30’s to lower 40’s then upper 40’s respectively. Overall temperature anomaly will remain about 2°F-4°F above normal.
Long Term (Wednesday 10-20-2021 through Saturday 10-23-2021)
Long term range period resumes with presence of upper level ridge overhead, but this will start to weaken down as we move through the day on Wednesday, out ahead of an approaching short-wave trough. We will continue to surface high over Appalachians region during the day, but this will shift eastward, and allow clouds to build in by Wednesday night. As we go into Thursday, short-wave trough will arrive in our area, we will have a cold front which will come closer to our area by afternoon hours and clear out by late evening hours. After seeing rain showers out ahead of the trough, our weather condition will cool down once again for Friday into Saturday. Models are expecting another piece of trough from eastern Canada to drop down into our area and merge with the weakening short-wave and lead to extended period of trough in our area as of result of this on Friday. The trough will tighten its grip a little more on Saturday for us resulting in even more cooler day for us. As we move later into Saturday night, the trough will finally start to move out of our area by then out ahead of another strengthening ridge to our west. On surface levels, high pressure will move into Illinois and Indiana region by Friday into Saturday, leading to return of clear and dry condition on both of these days. Our Temperatures on Wednesday will remain above normal with temperatures in low-mid 70’s for highs and cool into upper 60’s Thursday before dropping into upper 50’s and lower 60’s Friday and Saturday. Lows will be in upper 40’s to lower 50’s Wednesday and Thursday night before falling into upper 30’s and lower 40’s Friday and Saturday night. Our temperature anomalies during this period will be about 2°F-5°F above normal during this period.