Issued: 4pm on Thursday, March 2nd 2023
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short Term (Thursday 3-2-23 through Sunday 3-5-23)
For much of Thursday, conditions have been relatively dry after the passage of a warm front on Wednesday, which caused the very warm temperatures. Looking at current upper level analysis, a southern stream shortwave trough will push northeast and approach our area early Friday in addition to a strong surface low pressure system. This will spell cause for trouble for southeast Ohio, with not only chances for severe weather, but also gusty winds and flash flood threats. In terms of severe weather, the SPC has our northern counties in a marginal risk and more southern counties under a slight risk. Looking at forecast soundings for Friday, there is not much CAPE available, but there is ample shear as well as low LCL heights, which combined with strong winds aloft could lead to some convection. The main threats will be damaging winds, small hail, and even a chance for isolated tornadoes depending on how well storms form. In terms of the expected gusty winds, portions of southeast Ohio will be under a Wind Advisory from Friday, March 3 at 7am until Saturday, March 4 at 7am EST. These gusty winds will be in response to a tightening pressure gradient associated with the low pressure system. In terms of flash flooding threats, portions of southeast Ohio are also under an Areal Flood Watch from Friday, March 3 at 4am until Saturday, March 4 at 1am EST. As mentioned before, this approaching system will be a strong one, so excessive rainfall will be associated with it, which will lead to flooding in low-lying areas and will make travel potentially hazardous. Rain chances will continue as we head into Friday night as the surface low pressure and occluding cold front takes its time pushing to the northeast.
After a rather active Friday and Friday night, conditions are finally forecasted to clear out for Saturday and Sunday as high pressure both aloft and at the surface begin to build in to the area. This will also promote the start of a gradual warming trend as we head into next week.
Long Term (Monday 3-6-23 through Thursday 3-9-23)
High pressure will continue to provide dry conditions for much of Monday before it shifts off to the east, allowing another low pressure to approach the Great Lakes and therefore providing chances for rain Monday night into Tuesday afternoon as a frontal boundary moves through. A few shortwave disturbances are showing up on models into mid week, so slight chances for precipitation may be possible, but nothing significant at this time.