Issued: 4pm on Thursday, March 30th 2023
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short Term (Thursday 3-30-23 through Sunday 4-2-23)
Upper level ridging and surface high pressure are providing plentiful sunshine and highs in the mid 50s for this Thursday. Relative humidity values have dropped into into the mid 20s, but calm winds have kept the southeast Ohio region from being under elevated fire danger. Quieter weather will persist through Thursday night, with mostly clear skies expected. Despite the skies still remaining clear Thursday night, temperatures will not drop significantly as a strong low pressure system begins to make its approach from the west, lifting an associated warm front north into the area. Rain showers will then become widespread with the lifting of this front in addition to a low level jet ramping up wind speeds. A high wind watch is currently issued for much of West Virginia, so do not be surprised if this watch gets expanded into southeast Ohio, as wind gusts between 45-50 mph are expected at the moment, partly due to the strong passing cold front and a rather tight pressure gradient. The strongest winds will arrive on Saturday once the cold front bears down on the region. Isolated thunderstorms may develop Friday afternoon/evening into Saturday along and ahead of a cold front associated with the low pressure, with damaging winds and heavy downpours being the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center has portions of southeast Ohio under a marginal risk of severe weather, as well as a marginal risk for excessive rainfall due to these expected threats. The threat for rain and thunderstorms will continue through Saturday afternoon, quickly coming to an end once the cold front passes through. After a rather active weather pattern, ridging aloft and surface high pressure will bring any lingering precipitation to an end on Sunday.
Long Term (Monday 4-3-23 through Thursday 4-7-23)
The aforementioned dry pattern will only be brief, as the high pressure will shift off to the east Sunday night into Monday, allowing a shortwave to pass overhead and therefore bringing chances for rain showers by Monday night. Models currently show this shortwave energy sending a cold front through the area, which will eventually turn into a stationary front in response to a low pressure from the south. Timing is not clear as to how fast this system will make an impact on the area, but either way, expect chances for rain showers to persist for much of the work week. However, temperatures will be near 80 by Wednesday thanks to southerly flow.