Issued: 4pm on Thursday, May 4th 2023
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short Term (Thursday 5-4-23 through Sunday 5-7-23)
May the 4th be with you! After a wet few days thanks to a deep longwave trough over the Great Lakes and a cut-off low pressure system, conditions are finally starting to clear out on this Thursday. Stratocumulus clouds have been hovering over the southeast Ohio region most of the day as this disturbance is finally pushing off to the northeast, with upper level ridging and surface high pressure in its wake. As this much drier weather begins to take hold, skies will clear out Thursday night, leading to radiational cooling. Friday will then be a mostly sunny day with mild temperatures in the 70s, meaning conditions will finally feel more like Spring! However, a shortwave disturbance will try to ride through the upper ridge, causing slight chances for rain showers Friday night into Saturday. These will be just pop-up showers at best, with no washout expected. The best chance for heavier rounds of precipitation will begin Sunday afternoon into Monday as numerous shortwave disturbances interrupt the ridging pattern aloft.
Long Term (Monday 5-8-23 through Thursday 5-11-23)
The ridging pattern will help keep temperatures mild during the long term forecast, but the aforementioned shortwave disturbances will bring chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms for much of the next week. Conditions are likely to clear out by mid week as the upper ridge strengthens ahead of a strong developing Colorado Low.