Issued: 5pm on Friday, March 8th 2024
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short-term Forecast (Friday 3/8 through Sunday 3/10):
A negatively tilted upper-level trough is to the NW. The warm front moved in today, bringing another swath of warm air into the region, as we saw afternoon temperatures climb into the mid-60s, seasonably warm for the beginning of March. Additionally, it has brought brief widespread rain showers, which are expected to continue on and off overnight. The cold front will move through early Saturday afternoon, bringing heavier downpours with stronger cells to the area due to the stronger forcing associated with the front, which can also be seen with strong vertical velocities and PVA values aloft. Furthermore, strong CAA will occur behind the front through Saturday, bringing Sunday’s high back down into the 40s.
Long-term Forecast (Monday 3/11 through Thursday 3/14):
Conditions will begin to change on Monday as the trough heads east following the divergence upstream of it. Upper-level ridging will then take place overhead, allowing for convergence, strong NVA, and, ultimately, subsidence, clearing the skies out on Monday. Temperatures will remain cooler, but sunny skies are anticipated. Tuesday and Wednesday, mostly zonal flow will take place aloft, with a few small shortwaves moving through to the south. However, sunny skies are expected to remain, and southerly flow at the surface will help advect much warmer Gulf of Mexico air into the area, resulting in afternoon highs in the upper 60s and low-70s. Stronger ridging will take place Thursday with strong NVA, so skies will remain clear and sunny, and temperatures will continue to climb that afternoon, with temperatures peaking in the mid-to-upper 70s.
