Issued: 5pm on Sunday, August 13th 2023
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short-term Forecast (Sunday night 8/13/2023 through Tuesday 8/15/2023):
Tonight temperatures will drop into the mid-60s with cloudy skies and calm winds as we sit under a weak high pressure between low-pressure systems. However, Monday will be different as an occluding low-pressure system moves into the area. As of this post, the Storm Prediction Center has placed SE Ohio under a slight risk for severe thunderstorms with a 2% chance for tornadoes and a 15% chance for damaging winds. SE Ohio will be sitting in the left exit of the upper-level jetstreak of this system, which forces divergence/upward motion to dominate the region. This will allow for enhanced lift and further promote the development of convection. However, current model guidance is not suggesting significant instability as mid-level lapse rates and MLCAPE values are fairly low. Bulk shear values peak at 55 kts, though, which may allow any storms that do initiate to sustain themselves during the afternoon hours. Unfortunately, models do not agree on timing right now, so be on the lookout for more detailed timing in Monday morning’s forecast. A general timeframe to expect the main line of strong storms is between 10 am and 4 pm. Make sure to stay weather aware and have multiple ways to receive warnings.
Tuesday will be much calmer as rain chances are much lower. Cloudy skies and cooler temperatures are in the forecast after the cold front’s passage on Monday.
Long-term Forecast (Wednesday 8/16/2023 through Saturday 8/19/2023):
Wednesday and Thursday will remain dry as high pressure dominates the region. Thursday night into Friday, a weak cold front will pass through from a low-pressure system to our north so we may see a few showers during this period. But afterward, much stronger high pressure will fill in and dominate the region bringing sunny skies and warm temperatures near 90 degrees.