Issued: 12am on Sunday, November 10th 2024
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short-term Forecast (Sunday 11/10/2024 through Tuesday 11/12/2024):
A wide-spanning cold front from a low pressure core stationed north of New England has pushed into the southeastern Ohio region after a slow progression days prior. This cold front has brought along steady rain that has accumulated to around 1.5 inches. As the front continues to the eastern seaboard, a shortwave trough that has propagated this system will transition to more zonal flow. Locally, cloud cover will clear by the morning hours of Monday. From a building ridge, a core of stronger high pressure near 1024 mb will travel from the northern Plains eastward, pushing along another cold frontal boundary. Supporting low-to-mid level moisture remains weak and thus widespread precipitation remains unlikely, though a period of increased low-cloud cover will be present as the front arrives Monday evening. This front will serve to cool the area down to the mid 50s as a high on Tuesday, though as the ridge’s crest advects over our area, a warming trend back to the low 60s is likely.
Long-term Forecast (Wednesday 11/13/2024 through Saturday 11/16/2024):
This fast moving high pressure will be quickly forced out as a neutrally-titled trough from the plains progresses to the east. As the core of the low reaches the upper Midwest overnight Wednesday into Thursday, strong cold air advection is likely alongside prominent height falls, dropping high temperatures back to the high 50s on Thursday. The surface low will likely occlude as it reaches the Ohio region, further denoted by the trough entering a negative tilt. The occluded front will likely deliver another half inch of rain during Thursday morning, while thunderstorm potential remains minimal due to insufficient CAPE and shear. The shortwave trough will continue to place us in a downslope through Friday as the occluded low continues to strengthen as it moves east. The upper-cyclone will furthermore enter a cutoff phase, thus promoting further advection of moist low-level air and keeping low clouds present in the area through Friday on account of 850 mb saturation. However, the placement of right-exit region of the Jestreak will likely support a high pressure system to enter the region once more. A building ridge from behind this trough will introduce another slight warming trend as it propagates eastward, furthermore moving the core of high pressure directly over the Ohio Valley region, and advecting somewhat drier air back into the area.
